Turkey will hold a referendum on Sunday on constitutional changes proposed by the ruling Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP). Secular opponents say the AKP is seeking an authoritarian grip on power, Prime Minister Erdogan argues the amendments will bring Turkey a step closer to the EU.

The conservative AKP, in power since 2002, says the package will liberalise Turkey's 30-year old constitution and help in its bid to join the EU. Erdogan argues that the amendments will democratise the current constitution, which was originally drafted by the former military junta in 1980.

Secular tradition
Lily Sprangers, director of the Dutch Turkey Institute, told Radio Netherlands that “a positive outcome of the referendum would mean a small, not a big step towards EU accession”.

She said the problems surrounding Turkey’s possible EU membership are more important than what this referendum is about. “But the APK’s proposal is in line with what the EU wants, even though the notion of the separation of powers is being stretched here and there.”

Turkey has a strong tradition of secularism, which the opposition fears is being eroded. In 2007, Abdullah Gul was elected president despite his past involvement with Islamist parties. A year later the government proposed lifting the headscarf ban in universities. The initiative was blocked by the Constitutional Court, which fined and almost banned the AKP, a moderate offshoot of a banned Islamist movement.

Regarding the role of religion and secularism in the Turkish referendum, Sprangers pointed out that opponents believe more APK government influence over the army could threaten Turkey’s secular principles.

“Turkey’s secularism is traditionally guaranteed by the army and the Constitutional Court. The EU wants to diminish the influence of the Turkish army to give way to more political control. After all, in a true democracy politics prevail. But Turkey’s secular opposition sees increased political control as a means to safeguard and increase APK’s power and Islamic influence.”

Turkish courts
The main amendments modify the make-up and election procedure of the Constitutional Court and the Higher Board of Judges and Prosecutors.

Turkey's highest courts, which see themselves as guardians of secular values, are at loggerheads with the AKP government. The Constitutional Court, which has the power to stop public financing of anti-secular political parties argues the changes will give the government more control over the appointment of senior judges. Opposition parties support the Court’s position.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the judicial elite has become a dogmatic caste enforcing authoritarian, hard-line secularist and nationalist values.

Military
The power of military justice would be curbed by APK’s proposed amendments. Civilian courts would try soldiers for coup attempts and pave the way for top army officers to be tried by the Supreme Court.

These proposals have led some liberals to back the package.

Four Turkish governments have been deposed by military coups since 1960. The referendum date, 12 September, coincides with the 30th anniversary of the 1980 coup that saw the introduction of the current constitution.

Outcome
Voters are required to decide on all amendments with a single "yes" or "no". Opinion polls suggest a neck-and-neck race with many votes still undecided.

“It is estimated that 55 percent of the electorate will vote ‘yes’, but there is a large group of undecided voters (22 percent) and the Kurdish party plans to boycott the vote,” Sprangers said. “Still, I personally expect a majority to vote in favour of the proposed amendments.”

A referendum victory would give the AKP a major boost ahead of general elections next year, in which it will seek a third straight term in power.