Justice has always been a rare commodity in Sudan, and the imminent divorce between North and South Sudan will not necessarily lead to democracy and more human rights. Southern Sudan will be a fragile state and the North will probably become more autocratic. Meanwhile, the war in Darfur may even reignite.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2001 by the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army and the government in Khartoum had two major components: democratisation in the whole of Sudan and a referendum in the South about its future status. When the last hurdles are smoothed out, the referendum will take place in January and the Southern Sudanese most likely will vote for independence.

In light of the upcoming separation, the Darfur rebels are re-positioning themselves. Denied access to neighboring Chad since a peace deal earlier this year between Khartoum and N’Djamena, the rebels are reportedly moving into areas of South Sudan. In a development that may give an indication of things to come once South Sudan is independent, the Northern army is bombarding these Darfuri insurgents in the South.

New war in Darfur?
The relations between the then insurgents of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) in the South and their rebel colleagues in Darfur were frosty for years. But in the last three years their contact has significantly improved. The SPLA and several rebel movements in Darfur face, for now, a common adversary in Khartoum.

But it is very likely that once the South is independent, it would focus on its own huge development needs and will not want to create a bad relationship with the North by activately supporting rebellions in neighboring Darfur. With the South out of the picture, the northern army will be able to put all its might on Darfur and start a major offensive there. This would mean more suffering for the Darfuri population.

Human rights violations
Meanwhile, the second element of the CPA was not addressed: democracy has yet to reach Sudan. The elections earlier this year were marred by accusations of fraud and most of the opposition parties did not participate. The security apparatus linked to the governing National Congress Party (NCP) is still the dominating power in the North.

President Omar al-Bashir remains one of the most wanted fugitives of the International Criminal Court, accused of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur. While the ICC warrant may be a victory for the resistance in Darfur, it poses a dilemma in any peace talks with Sudan. The indictment makes Bashir more rigid in the negotiations taking place between Western countries and Khartoum , including talks about the situation in Darfur.

As the pre-trial hearing at the ICC of two Darfur suspects accused of war crimes started this month, serious human rights violations are ongoing in this western Sudanese region. Hundreds of thousands of displaced people of earlier fighting are still in camps, denied access to their land and a safe home.

Journalists arrested
In the meantime, the government continues to muzzle freedom of expression by arresting journalists and members of the opposition. Three journalists, for example, were arrested in July, after they reported that Khartoum allegedly supported the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and that there were Iranian weapons in the capital. The authorities dismissed the reports as lies meant to destroy Sudanese foreign relations.

Earlier this month, a group of 400 lawyers and political leaders asked the authorities to release 14 detainees – journalists, human rights workers and lawyers - from Darfur who were arrested in late October.

When press freedom was at stake in the past, the SPLA was there to join the democracy campaigners in the North. In the last few months, however, the relations between SPLA and Khartoum have deteriorated fast, and the people of the North will be now on their own in their fight for democracy and human rights.

No one has clean hands
Just before the CPA was signed, a clause about past human rights violations and the need for a Truth and Reconciliation Commission was scrapped. North and South did not want anybody to poke their nose into their murky past as far as human rights are concerned. Neither side had clean hands. As long as they are not properly washed, the main power players in Sudan are likely to continue with their old habits.