Russian president Dmitry Medvedev recognised the independence of Georgia's two rebel regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, on Tuesday. The move is likely to worsen Russian relations with the West, which are already strained since Moscow's military reaction in Georgia at the beginning of this month. Russia specialist Frans Alting von Geusau has a more daring view than most experts. According to him, Russia's goal and a probable outcome is a reunification of Georgia with Russia.

Military conflict
Russia has backed separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia since they broke away from Tbilisi in the early 1990s, but up until now stopped short of recognising their independence from Georgia. Both South Ossetia and Abkhazia have strong ties with Russia.

Russia and Georgia fought a four-day war from 7 August onwards over South Ossetia after Tbilisi deployed troops to retake the province by force, provoking a massive counter-attack by the Russians. An unknown number of people were killed during the military conflict. Russia has not yet fully withdrawn its troops from Georgia. It says the remaining troops are peacekeepers needed to avoid further bloodshed and protect South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Unanimous approval
Both houses of the Russian Parliament on Monday unanimously approved a non-binding resolution calling on Medvedev to recognise the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which he did the following day. Kremlin officials hinted before that the Western recognition of Serbia's breakaway region of Kosovo had created a precedent.

President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia said Sunday of his ambition to bring South Ossetia and Abkhazia under Georgian control: "It will stay the same. Now as ever."

Likely scenario
The Kremlin itself is worried about separatist forces in some of Russia's own Caucasus regions, such as Chechnya and Dagestan. It was therefore thought to be reluctant to grant Georgia's breakaway regions independence for fear of creating a domino effect at home.

Emeritus professor International Organisations and Russia specialist Frans Alting von Geusau is not surprised that Russia has recognised the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. "It's a step towards a form of integration of both provinces with Russia, towards the restoration of the old Soviet borders. Russia's final goal is the return of Georgia. For that to become possible, Georgia has to be destabilised first."

Russia's way of reaching that goal, says Alting von Geusau, is to make sure Saakashvili is replaced by a Russian oriented leader. A plebiscite would then be organised in the presence of the Russian 'peacekeepers', in which the Georgian people would vote for reunification with Russia.

Bitter story
Georgia rejoining Russia in the near future is a realistic option, Alting von Geusau says. "It is an intensely sad and bitter story, but there is not much we can do. Putin already declared at the beginning of his term of office that his goal is to restore Russia to its pre-1917 borders. He has called the disintegration of the Soviet Union the biggest catastrophe of the 20th century."

Medvedev has expressed different reasons for his approach. He has said that Georgia's territorial integrity depends on the will of the people of both provinces. According to the Russian Parliament, the right of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to become independent is based largely on the alleged 'genocide' committed by Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It should be noted that Georgia has made similar allegations against its two breakaway regions.

Few consequences
Asked what the consequences of Russia's recognition of the Georgian provinces will be and how would the West will react to the move, he answers that not much will change. "We can do relatively little about it. Some countries who have always been opposed to Georgia joining the NATO now want Georgia to become a member as soon as possible. But it's already too late. And even if Georgia would soon join the NATO, the other member states will not be capable of or interested in defending Georgia."

The same applies to the consequences Russia's recognition will have for the provinces themselves, Alting von Geusau says. "Not much will change. There are Russian soldiers there already, under the false name of peacekeepers. There are Russian troops in the buffer zone surrounding both provinces, and in Georgia itself. The Russian presence will simply continue."

European efforts
French President Nicholas Sarkozy, who has brokered a Russian-Georgian ceasefire, recently called an emergency meeting of EU leaders in to discuss the crisis, review the European Union's relations with Russia and consider an aid package for Georgia. The 27 EU-leaders will gather in Brussels on 1 September.

Written by Lula Ahrens