With the upcoming elections in Myanmar, the world is refocusing its attention on the military regime that is ruling the country. The US has recently voiced its support for a UN inquiry into alleged war crimes. Ashley South is an independent writer and consultant, specialising in humanitarian and political issues in Myanmar and Southeast Asia. He spoke to IJT's Paul Anstiss.

Myanmar, or Burma, has been a very difficult country to crack, now the US is talking about supporting a war crime probe, do you think that it will bring Myanmar back into line or is it likely to drive the country away?
It is difficult to see how a commission of inquiry could really be a force towards reconciliation domestically, within Myanmar. The government is already quite dominated by an ‘officer clique’ that is quite paranoid regarding international relations, and has been driven by the isolation and sanctions regime of Western governments, towards having a much closer relationship with China than might otherwise have been the case.

If you look at what has happened in Sudan, Darfur, it may be possible to indict leaders of countries, but actually bringing them to justice is really something else. Could that be the case in Myanmar?
It is difficult to know quite how a commission of inquiry could be convened, assuming that China continues to exercise a veto in the Security Council. Then my understanding is that any other mechanism would be unlikely to result in a referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Thus, it is likely to be a symbolic irritant to the military government and any successor that comes after the November elections, rather than actually a mechanism that could really move change forward.

I think another lesson perhaps to draw from Sudan is that after President Bashir’s indictment in the ICC many of the aid agencies working in the country had their operations restricted, some were kicked out, others left voluntarily.

One of the few positive developments in recent years in Burma has been an opening up of space for domestic civil society actors and also for international agencies in the country, particularly in the aftermath of the appalling cyclone Nargis, which struck in May 2008.

Any move to indict the government would make them much more cautious in terms of allowing aid agencies into the country, which could have very damaging consequences.

What are your feelings on the role that international human rights organisations play in Myanmar?
When I first started working on the country in the mid 1990s it was reasonable to say ‘the international community must know what is happening in Myanmar’, but over the past 15 years in particular a veritable industry has grown up documenting and denouncing abuses in the country. I think that is appropriate and I wouldn’t say it shouldn’t be continued, but I don’t think the human rights groups have achieved very much.

I think that often some of the most effective work is done behind the scenes in terms of persuasive advocacy, engaging with local power holders whether they be Myanmar army commanders or local non-state armed groups. This complementary approach or advocacy deserves a bit more attention.

We have seen what the blogger-community has been able to do in Iran and Thailand to be able to scrutinise what is going on in those countries. Is there such a community in Burma?
Yes, there is a very well established underground network of bloggers inside the country and in opposition. That was one of the characteristics of the 2007 so called ‘Saffron Revolution’. A monk-led popular protest in August and September 2007 which culminated 3 years ago this week.

That news of the protests and photographs of the military’s brutal suppression were sent to the outside world via mobile telephone photographs, bloggers, email networks. And I am sure that the same will be the case in the forthcoming elections.

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