On September 25, the United Nations commission investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri published a new provisional report [IJT-51]. However, since the 34-day war between Israel and the Hezbollah in July-August, the commission has come under greater pressure. Syria, which is a target of the international investigation, is trying to thwart the commission's efforts, while its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, is weakening the central government. Hezbollah, which emerged from the war more powerful than ever, has called for the Lebanese government's resignation, saying that it was incapable of protecting the Lebanese state from foreign aggression. But on October 5, the Maronite Bishops Council, a powerful Christian organization, said that these recent calls from Hezbollah were "attempts to hamper the creation of an international tribunal to try former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassins."

Syria, one of Hezbollah's two main outside supporters, seems in fact to be profiting from a post-war context that is giving it the opportunity to attack the UN's credibility and thereby, the Hariri commission. The Syrian representative to the UN, Bashar Jaafari, said "Many, in Lebanon in particular and the region in general, would have expected the [UN Security] Council to attach importance to the war crimes and crimes against humanity that had been perpetrated recently during the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon." He claimed that the commission's mandate should therefore be expanded to investigate other crimes allegedly committed by Mossad, Israel's intelligence and special operations agency. He also alleged that some of the witnesses have misled the investigation on Hariri's assassination for political objectives. According to Jaafari, "One of the most dangerous things facing the investigation was the attempt by some in the region to exploit the Commission and provide prefabricated conclusions and unsupported information."

In addition to Syria's political pressure, security threats have increased as two individuals involved in the inquiry have recently been the targets of assassination attempts. On September 5th, four died in a large explosion targeting Colonel Samir Shehadeh, who held a senior post in the Interior Ministry's intelligence branch. Shehadeh had played a leading role in the investigation, including the arrest of four Lebanese generals alleged to have participated in the crime. According to Ahmad Fatfat, Lebanon's Minister of the Interior, another official was the target of a separate assassination attempt, but he did not reveal his name for security reasons. Fatfat also questioned whether it was a "coincidence" that the attack occurred ten days before the chief of the UN investigation, Serge Brammertz, was scheduled to present his findings in New York.

A foreigner might be the killer

In his third report, issued on September 25th, Brammertz reported that evidence culled from the bomb site showed that a young man drove a truck laden with approximately 1,800 kg of explosives into Hariri's convoy; the DNA testing of the attacker's human remains revealed that he was a man in his early 20s. Brammertz added that the evidence indicated that the killer was not from the country; a human tooth found at the site belonging to the attacker bore "a distinguishing mark to the surface of the crown, which is a feature rarely seen among people from Lebanon." The international scope of the crime, however, may prove to be problematic for the anticipated court, if it does not have the jurisdiction to prosecute individuals outside of Lebanon.
Commenting on the difficulty of continuing to work amid death threats, violent attacks, and political instability, Brammertz told reporters in New York, "If I was personally not convinced that there was a chance to discover the truth, I don't think that I would ask to so many people to work with me in a not always very easy environment. I'm not pessimistic, but I'm not able to promise anything."