The Special Tribunal for Lebanon filed its first indictment this week amidst a political crisis in the country, with factions at loggerheads about the existence of the tribunal which seeks to investigate the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

By Daisy Mohr, Beirut

STL prosecutor Daniel Bellemare on Monday filed a confidential indictment in connection with the 2005 attack on Hariri in Beirut, which killed him and 22 others. Details of the long-awaited indictment is not expected to be divulged for another six to ten weeks, when pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen is to decide whether there is enough evidence to proceed with a trial.

Last week, Lebanon’s Hezbollah-led opposition stepped out of the government after Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the son of the slain Sunni leader, refused the opposition’s demand to hold an immediate cabinet meeting to discuss the United Nations-backed tribunal.

Hezbollah’s resignation follows the failure of a five-month mediation effort by Syria and Saudi Arabia to find a solution to Lebanon’s political deadlock. The cabinet’s collapse has thrown Lebanon into its worst political crisis since 2008, when a similar stalemate resulted in deadly street fighting.

Many are worried that the indictments would add fuel to the fire. While the tribunal has remained tight-lipped, it has been widely speculated that Hezbollah members will be among those indicted. Hezbollah has denied any involvement in the assassination.

“To have a dysfunctional government at a time when everyone is waiting to hear who killed Raffia Hariri is not a very safe environment. What will happen on the day the indictments will be made public? It will be a scary moment,” says Paul Salem, the director of the Middle East Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

In the past months, Hezbollah officials had hoped to persuade Hariri to withdraw state funding for the tribunal, pressure its Lebanese judges to resign and declare the agreement with the UN mandating the court null and void. In exchange, they would allow him to retain his post.

Hariri, however, has repeatedly stated that he would continue supporting the tribunal. The United States, a staunch STL backer, has pledged to ensure that the tribunal continues its work. “As the US and the international community have said from the beginning: the STL is an irrevocable, international judicial process, and its work is not a matter of politics but of law,” said US ambassador to Lebanon, Maura Connelly, after the government collapsed.

Hariri, in the interest of national unity, said late last year that he won't push for the arrest or prosecution of any Hezbollah members indicted. Salem pointed out that even without the government’s collapse, it would still be “inconceivable that someone in Lebanon would arrest suspects.”

Analysts seem to agree that for the moment, however, the collapse of the government will not have a direct impact on the STL’s daily operations. “It won’t affect the STL directly. No new action can be taken as this has paralyzed the situation. If there is no government for a long time, there will be no payments, but others have already indicated they’re willing to make those,” says Salem.

Should a new government be formed with an opposition majority, it would immediately cut ties with the STL. “I doubt, however, that they have enough votes to form such a government. They have no clear majority,” he adds.

A 2006 agreement between the UN and Lebanon established the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, or 'Hariri tribunal'. Its statute was endorsed on 30 May 2007, giving the court a mandate to try those suspected of assassinating Hariri. The court may also investigate other attacks in Lebanon, of a similar nature or gravity, committed after 1 October 2004.

The Hariri Tribunal, located in the Dutch town of Leidschendam, is first UN-sponsored criminal court to try a specific person for a 'terrorist' crime. The body will be a 'hybrid' international court, similar to the war crimes courts for Sierra Leone and Cambodia, with the important distinction that it will apply Lebanese law, not international law.

Hezbollah has insisted that the tribunal is a political conspiracy by Israel and the West to increase pressure on their organization, which is on the US list of terrorist groups. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has warned that the organization will “cut off the hands” of anyone attempting to arrest its members.

Meanwhile, the situation remains calm in Beirut, a city only too familiar with violence. While a bloody 15-year civil war ended in 1990, sectarian and political strife since then has often degenerated into fierce clashes.

While some Lebanese feel the tribunal is necessary, others worry about country’s stability. “Despite its limited mandate, it is important to bear in mind that for this country this represents a positive break with the past – if it succeeds,” says Lynn Maalouf of the International Centre for Transitional Justice in Beirut. “In its contemporary history Lebanon suffered over thirty high profile assassinations without any form of accountability.”

Lebanon seems to be heading for an extended political gridlock. The establishment of a new government could take months, during which time Hariri’s cabinet will remain as an interim government. However, its functions may be impaired. During a speech on Sunday Nasrallah made very clear that Hezbollah and its allies will not back Hariri in forming a new government. Salem: “Forming a new government in the current situation is virtually impossible.”

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