In Ivory Coast, the gap between rhetoric and reality is growing dangerously large. On paper, all seems to be heading in the right direction. There is a Dialogue, Truth and Reconciliation Commission in place. Early June, the new government of president Alassane Ouattara declares it wants an end to impunity and justice for all.

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By Bram Posthumus in Amsterdam and Selay Marius Kouassi in Abidjan

The International Criminal Court
It has already requested the International Criminal Court to investigate what it terms “the gravest crimes”. On June 17, the ICC chief prosecutor invites victims of political violence to come forward and present their cases to a preliminary chamber, which will then decide on an official inquiry into war crimes. The next day, 17 close collaborators of the previous government of Laurent Gbagbo are released from the hotel where they were held, as a gesture of reconciliation.

Surely, these are all positive signs in the wake of a political crisis that has left more than 3,000 people dead, displaced hundreds of thousands and sent upwards of 200,000 Ivorians into exile.

But do they match realities on the ground? Not at all, according to reports from the economic capital Abidjan and from the west of the country.

No match to reality
From the west, some 175,000 refugees have fled into Liberia. They say they are perfectly willing to go home – provided someone disarms the armed gangs roaming their towns and villages.

President Ouattara has offered assurances that most of the Ivorian territory is under state control but that clearly has not convinced the refugees in Liberia.

It gets worse. Late May, armed gangs overran a small goldmine in Ivory Coast, just across the virtually unguarded border with Liberia, killing eight people. Fearing revenge attacks, villagers near a similar operation just inside Liberia wanted to be moved to a safer place. The police arrested some former Liberian mercenaries in connection with the case but found no arms.

Sources of violence
The continued violence in western Ivory Coast has three sources: property conflicts, political differences, crime. The perpetrators could be hired guns used by citizens to settle disputes, out-of-control soldiers, mercenaries from Liberia – or armed criminals. In fact, anyone with a gun can be all of these at the same time. In May, armed men from Ivory Coast were arrested in the southernmost province of Maryland but these have subsequently been released and given refugee status. Meanwhile, rumours persist that pro-Gbagbo militias are re-grouping.

Something similar is happening in Abidjan. When the Republican Forces, the de facto army of president Ouattara moved into the southern part of the country in late March, they brought with them the warlords who had spent ten years carving out territories for themselves in the North.

They are now doing the same in Abidjan and their method remains unchanged: squeezing cash out of the travelling public. Cracks have appeared within the Republican Forces, with former rebels from the North refusing to take orders from former soldiers from Gbagbo’s former army, even if they are higher in rank.

Massacre at Duékoué
The Republican Forces are the biggest obstacle to an inquiry into the worst incident during the entire crisis: the massacre of up to 800 people at Duékoué, in the west of the country, which at the time was under their control. President Ouattara has said that an inquiry into the massacre is ongoing but he has not announced decisive action against the perpetrators, if and when they are found. Here is a question: is the massacre included in “the gravest crimes” that he wants the ICC to investigate?

No reconciliation without justice
Reine Alapini-Gansou, an Ivorian human rights activist told Radio France International this week that there can be no reconciliation without justice. But justice will be delayed unless Ouattara takes on the warlords now settling in Abidjan. This will almost certainly alienate them and Prime Minister Soro, the former rebel leader.

For now, the safe tack seems to be: deny there is a problem. But the problem does not go away. Reconciliation also implies the will to talk to each other. This is not in evidence either. Take these two scenes from Zwedru, Liberia. One: scores of young Ivorian men mill around the central square with nothing to do. They talk all day and drink at night. Two: in a restaurant down the road, two well-dressed gentlemen were adamant that they would fight the Ouattara government tooth and nail. Asked if that implied armed insurrection, their silence spoke volumes.

Lead photo - UK DFID flickr.com - all further use subject to this CC licence