The judges of the International Criminal Court have issued an arrest warrant against President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan. It is the ICC's first arrest warrant against an incumbent president.

Al-Bashir is being charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity. The court explained why Mr al-Bashir is not accused of genocide:

"The material provided by the prosecutor in support of its application for a warrant of arrest failed to provide reasonable grounds to believe that the government of Sudan acted with specific intention to destroy in whole or in part the Fur, the Zagawa and Masalit groups. Consequently the crime of genocide is not included in the warrant issue of the arrest of Omar al-Bashir."

Immediately after the announcement of the warrant thousands of Sudanese took to the streets in Khartoum to protest the ICC decision.

No genocide
The conspicuous absence of genocide in the charges is no surprise to former UN envoy to Sudan, Jan Pronk. Mr Pronk, a former minister in the Dutch cabinet, reckons that the arrest warrant will lead to a hardening of the Khartoum regime's attitude. From the outset Mr Pronk opposed an arrest warrant for Mr al-Bashir because it couldn't but reinforce his position. Mr Pronk told RNW,

"Al-Bashir is still in power. Other leaders in the regime will try and hide behind him. I think the arrest warrant may also have consequences for the peace accord between North and South Sudan. In addition I expect a hardening of attitudes towards humanitarian workers and the UN in Sudan."

Doctors risk expulsion
Sudan's authorities have made it clear they want to expel Doctors without Borders (MSF), a step regretted by Mr Pronk. He thinks MSF is by far the best aid organisation currently working in Sudan. According to him, they have saved tens of thousands of lives. Mr Pronk says the best NGOs are always expelled first. He is very interested in the South's reaction to the arrest warrant. Its leaders are in a difficult situation:

"The South feels indebted to the International community because it helped to arrange a peace accord with the North. The arrest warrant, I think, will therefore have a destabilising effect. There is now a totally new political situation in Sudan. But in the short term the situation will primarily be characterised by massive insecurity."

Impact still unclear
Radio Netherlands Worldwide's Sudanese editor Mohammed Abdulrahman does not expect an immediate outburst of violence in Sudan in reaction to the indictment. He says, "Surely a number of demonstrations will be organised to support Bashir and to condemn the ICC, but that will quickly become less in the next few days."

In the United Kingdom, Sudanese professor of philosophy Abdulsalam Nouredin begs to differ:
"Sudan will be under political siege and that siege will drive off course the establishment into some sort of disintegration. One of the consequences might be coup d'etat or internal strige which will lead consequently to some sort of complete collapse."

Sudan ignores warrant
Whoever may have reacted with joy, the rebel leaders in Darfur will certainly be among them, says Sudanese journalist Muhajir of Radio Darfur:

"All of them are very happy. They expect a lot lot from this arrest warrant because now he is indicted he must be brought to the ICC. He must show up there."

It remains to be seen whether al-Bashir will actually appear in The Hague. It is likely that Sudan, which has not recognized the International Criminal Court, will not extradite al-Bashir. For now, the arrest warrant appears to leave al-Bashir cold. The Sudan government announced that he will attend as planned a major conference next week in Doha, Qatar.

Written by: Pieternel Gruppen