Talks aimed at forming a right-wing minority government in the Netherlands have collapsed. Sharp divisions in the Christian Democrat CDA party about working with the anti-Islam Freedom Party (PVV) of Geert Wilders finally boiled to the surface, forcing Mr Wilders to pull out of negotiations. The liberal VVD party were prepared to continue negotiations.

At a press conference, Freedom Party leader Geert Wilders said, "There was no guarantee that there would have been a majority of 76 seats because of three dissidents in the Christian Democrat faction", who had their doubts about working with the right wing Freedom Party. These dissidents include Ab Klink, who was one of the CDA co-negotiators during the coalition talks.

Queen Beatrix will meet with her advisors about how to proceed in forming a new government.

Dragging on
It is now 13 weeks since national elections were held on 9 June. It is not unusual that talks to form a coalition drag on in the wake of an election. Since World War II, it has taken on average three months between an election and a new government taking office.

But this year’s election results have presented this country with a particularly tricky political landscape. The victor, the free-market liberal VVD party led by Mark Rutte, won just 31 seats in parliament (out of 150). That makes it the smallest winning party ever. Plus, there are seven parties large enough to make a real claim on joining a coalition government. Hence, cobbling together a 76-seat majority is a challenge. 

Radical views
Perhaps as significant is the Geert Wilders factor. With 24 seats in the new parliament, his Freedom Party is the third largest. But his radical views about Islam alienate even his potential allies.

This did not stop the VVD and the CDA from attempting to form a minority government, with support from Wilders’ PVV in parliament. Those three parties together command 76 seats, just enough to form a such a government.

Unconstitutional
But in the end, it was the Freedom Party’s stance on Islam which troubled many Christian Democrats. Some of Wilders’ proposals, such as banning the Muslim holy book, the Qur'an, closing all Muslim schools, and banning the construction of new mosques, are considered unconstitutional, as well as in violation of European law. (Freedom of Religion is the 6th article of the Dutch constitution.)

Christian Democrat leader Maxime Verhagen said just after the June election that he shared these concerns. In fact, he declined to join talks back then to form a government on the right with the VVD and the PVV.

But when other coalition options failed, Mr Verhagen decided to give it a go – so long as the PVV did not actually join the government, but agreed to support a minority government from parliament. Mr Verhagen’s reassurances to his colleagues that any governing agreement he signed would sufficiently protect the legal rights of Muslims, proved insufficient. 

Blow
Maxime Verhagen’s right-hand man in the negotiations, and the number two in the party, Ab Klink, planted the decisive blow. Mr Klink was known to have misgivings about working with the PVV, but nonetheless, his move to torpedo the negotiations came as a surprise. As minister of health in the caretaker cabinet, Mr Klink is known as a kind-hearted policy wonk, who prefers to stay in the background. The polar opposite of party leader Maxime Verhagen: current foreign minister, considered to be the shrewdest and boldest political strategist of his generation.

While Mr Klink gave the final push, the opposition within the Christian Democrats reached its height when the party’s most prominent elder statesman, former Prime Minister Ruud Lubbers, went public with his objections last week. All the more remarkable, given that Mr Lubbers had just weeks earlier served as 'informateur', bringing together this combination of parties in the first place. His public opposition capped a movement among party elders to express their opposition to working with Geert Wilders.

The CDA is a party famous for its discipline, no one expected any of the 21 current MPs to sway. Least of all the number two. 

Crisis in CDA
The collapse of negotiations, and the end of cooperation with Geert Wilders, may have saved the Christian Democrats from a split. But the party is nonetheless facing a major crisis.

Geert Wilders is disappointed, and angry. He feels his party’s 24 seats earn him the right to govern. The minority construction was already a denial of that right. Now his predictions of being closed out by the political elite have come true, in his reading of the process.

Now Queen Beatrix and her advisors have to decide what to do next. Electoral victor Mark Rutte may tell her he wants to try the so-called middle cabinet, joining the traditionally largest parties the VVD, CDA and Labour Party. However, the crisis in the CDA could make that party power shy, and the Queen may request another attempt at a larger coalition, with four or five parties.