A suicide bomb attack in the Russian republic of Ingushetia has killed nineteen people with more than sixty injured. A truck loaded with explosives drove into a police headquarters in the city of Nazran. It is another example of the recent rise in violence in Russia’s Caucasus region.

Although no one has claimed responsibility yet, government officials in Ingushetia have already accused Muslim rebels. These groups have been responsible for attacks in the past, such as June’s attempt to kill President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. He survived the attack, although he has yet to return to his post.

Other republics in the Caucasus region, such as Chechnya, Dagestan and North Ossetia, have also witnessed a rise in violent attacks, killings and disappearances recently.

Harsh governance
According to Dutch Caucasus expert Jos Boonstra, who works for the European think tank FRIDE, both the rebel groups and the Moscow-backed governments of these republics are to blame for the upsurge of the violence. “The very harsh governance of the various republics is one reason”, he says. “Their presidents rule these small republics in a fierce way. In Chechnya, several human rights activists have been killed over the past few months, for instance. This leads to more resistance from rebellious groups”.

Some of these groups – especially in Ingushetia – have an Islamic background. In a government report published earlier this year, it was stated that these rebel groups had clear links with Jihadist groups from neighbouring countries and from more distant regions like Turkey, Syria and Iran.

Peaceful
Mr Boonstra, however, is not convinced this link is as strong as the report suggests. “In this region, there’s always been a peaceful coexistence of different religions. In the Caucasus, Islam has never been violent and has even integrated into a modern society. So I wouldn’t compare rebellious factions in this region to for instance Taliban rebels in Afghanistan”.

But Mr Boonstra understands why the republics are specifically targeting these rebel groups. “These rebels are a huge problem for the governments and for Moscow”, he says. “But the question who’s to blame is very often a chicken or egg situation: Is it the rebel groups that need to be suppressed by the governments, or is it the government that is so harshly ruling the people and committing crimes themselves”.

Scrutiny
Meanwhile, Moscow’s leadership in the region is scrutinised by observers inside and outside Russia. “The world is now looking at Russia again how it is acting in the region”, Mr Boonstra says. “There are still disappearances and killings of members of the opposition and journalists in Chechnya, lead by President Ramzan Kadyrov who was appointed by Moscow. Criticism from the EU and the US on this doesn’t go down well in Moscow”.

Oil rubles
Nevertheless, the situation in the Caucasus remains problematic for regional and national leaders. The current economic crisis makes it even worse, says Mr Boonstra. “Russia is now incapable of sending its oil rubles to these regions as development aid, so the only thing Moscow can do is send more troops or replace one or two regional presidents. Whether that will be enough, remains to be seen”.

Mr Boonstra expects the Caucasus to remain troubled for some time. “From Russia’s point of view, it has been a problem for 200 years. So I don’t see any change in that in the next decade”.

Listen to a Newsline interview with Mr Boonstra here: