Tuesday has been declared “a day of national sovereignty”. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki insists that Iraq’s 750,000 soldiers and police can defend the nation from insurgents linked to al-Qaeda.

However, there remain fears that they may not be up to the job. This month alone more than 200 people have been killed in bomb attacks in Iraq, and all leave for security forces personnel has been cancelled.

Peace at a price
The security situation is nowhere near as volatile as it was in 2006 and 2007. The relative stability has been helped by the ‘surge’ of 20,000 extra US troops. But according to Iraq expert Phyllis Bennis of the Institute for Policy Studies, the ceasefire declared by Muqtada al-Sadr’s forces, and payments made to keep resistance fighters on side played a more vital role.

Peace has come at a price. According to Dr Bennis, social cohesion has been torn apart.

“The sectarian violence that had ravaged the once cosmopolitan mixed cities of Iraq, most particularly Baghdad, had done its job in the sense that there were no longer mixed neighbourhoods. The ethnic cleansing designed to create little pockets of ethnically pure Shia, or Sunni, or Kurdish, or Turkmen communities was largely complete.”

False withdrawal
Only a small number of US forces in training and advisory roles will remain in urban areas. The bulk of 131,000 American troops in Iraq will be stationed elsewhere. US commanders must gain permission from Iraqi authorities to conduct operations, but American troops retain a unilateral right to “legitimate self-defence”.

Dr Bennis says that, in reality, little has changed:

“There is a huge construction boom underway of the military bases just on the edge of the city. So, all that’s going to change is where those combat troops sleep. They will sleep just outside the city limits We’re hearing about the concept of re-missioning, in which combat troops will be given a new mission, supposedly as trainers, when actually their mission will be the same. This is a false withdrawal, if you will, unfortunately.”