It was meant to be an historic moment, signalling the end of a century long conflict between Turkey and Armenia. But although the two countries signed an agreement on Saturday, comments since then by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan suggest a true reconciliation may still be a long way off.

Listen to a Newsline interview with Caucasus expert Svante Cornell:

The agreement includes a deal on the alleged Turkish genocide on Armenians during the First World War. It also settles a border dispute between the two countries.

Last-minute differences
The document was signed in Zurich on Saturday, after three years of negotiations. The signing ceremony was postponed for three hours and speeches were scrapped due to last-minute differences.

Adding to that,  only a day later, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan said any reconciliation with Armenia could only be reached if that country ends its conflict with Azerbaijan, a close ally of Turkey.

Azerbaijan
Armenia would have to withdraw its troops from the disputed Nagorny-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan, Erdogan said. “We want all the borders to be opened at the same time”, he told reporters, “but as long as Armenia has not withdrawn from Azerbaijani territory it occupies, we won’t have a positive attitude”.

Nagorny-Karabakh, with a large Turkish minority, has been occupied by Armenian troops since the early 1990s. In the ensuing war, Turkey sided with Azerbaijan and closed the borders with Armenia.

Armenia immediately issued a statement on Sunday that reconciliation with Turkey should not be linked to the Nagorny-Karabakh issue.

Good reasons
Mr Erdogan’s words suggest his country doesn't want to ruffle any feathers in Azerbaijan. Caucasus expert Svante Cornell of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm told Radio Netherlands Worldwide that Turkey has good reasons to remain friends with the Azeris.

“The reality is that Azerbaijan is four times larger than Armenia – in population and in its economy”, he says. “It has a very strategic location between Russia and Iran, it has large energy resources and it’s a gateway to Central Asia. If you add to that the cultural links between Turkey and Azerbaijan, it becomes almost impossible for Turkey to move ahead with Armenia without Azerbaijan’s approval”.

Vital
Although Azerbaijan is of greater importance to Turkey than Armenia, it was vital for Turkey to end its dispute with the Armenians. “There’s a lot of pressure from Europe and the US to acknowledge the genocide”, Mr Cornell says. “Turkey realises that they have to come up with some sort of agreement or else accept further isolation from the West and a smaller chance of ever entering the EU”.

Mr Erdogan’s ‘zero-problem’ policy with all his neighbouring countries now proves to be problematic, as Azerbaijan does not accept the new relations between Turkey and Armenia.

Backed out
Mr Cornell thinks this is why Mr Erdogan apparently backed out from Saturday’s agreement. “He’s trying to please and reassure Azerbaijan with these statements, showing that he’s putting pressure on Armenia to resolve the conflict with Azerbaijan”.

But it’s still unclear whether these words are enough to really reassure Azerbaijan. If they’re not, the consequences could be serious, says Mr Cornell. “Azerbaijan would feel more and more isolated. They could then feel the conflict can  only be resolved by using force. Their defense budget is higher than Armenia’s total budget, so they feel much stronger”.

Wise move?
Given all this unrest, was it really a wise move to sign the document? “For Armenia, it was”, Mr Cornell says. “It will open up access to the rest of the world and reduce its reliance on Russia. However, Turkey stands to lose in its regional stature. It might gain some goodwill in the West, but it’s likely to lose in the Caucasus on issues that are very close to its national interests”.