Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has nothing to offer the NATO summit in Lisbon. He can’t promise his allies Dutch participation in the Afghan police training mission as they are demanding - there is too much political opposition in The Hague. So the Netherlands will not be joining the big boys determining military policy in Afghanistan. But is that actually so bad? 

- an opinion piece by RNW's Afghanistan correspondent -

Afghan policemen are shifting plastic Playmobil toy cars on a table-top sandpit at the German military camp in Kunduz province. The artificial miniature desert, kitted out with a Taliban figurine and some plastic trees, is used by German police to instruct their Afghan colleagues. Their main message: watch out for roadside bombs. These explosive devices, much used by the Taliban, constitute one of the main risks faced by the Afghan men when they leave the 'playground' and venture into their province.

Costly
Training local police and army personnel is one of NATO's top priorities in Afghanistan. The Atlantic alliance has upped its investment in police and military training to 1 billion dollars per month. Compare that to Afghanistan's national budget, which amounts to 1.1 billion dollars. Per year, that is.

The idea behind this mega-investment is that only a fully equipped Afghan police force will enable the United States - NATO's biggest member state - to pull out of Afghanistan within 18 months. Hence the urgent request to the US allies in NATO, including the Netherlands, to come up with trainers to help knock together a credible police force.

Not a military mission
A Dutch reconnaissance mission is in Afghanistan to explore the possibilities and conditions of a new mission there, while at the very same moment in Uruzgan the last remaining equipment from Camp Holland is being loaded onto cargo planes to be returned to the Netherlands. It's a reflection of the political divide between the government in The Hague, which is intent on sending 50 police instructors and between 500 and 700 servicemen to protect them, and the opposition in the Lower House, which okayed the police trainers but is refusing to agree to any Dutch soldiers returning to Afghanistan.

According to observers, the United States and NATO are "not amused" by Dutch politicking, and will increase pressure on the Netherlands. As former NATO secretary-general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told reporters:

"That training is of the utmost importance for two reasons. For one thing, it would be most awkward if the Netherlands, as the only country among the 50 involved, were to say 'we're pulling out and we're not going to be back'. The Dutch would cut a very bad figure internationally. And for another thing, Afghanistan is closely connected to our free society."

Mr De Hoop Scheffer explained his second statement by pointing out that, if extremists regain the upper hand in Afghanistan, it will ultimately lead to "destabilisation in our [NATO member states'] societies". Sources close to NATO suggest that US President Barack Obama will press the same point in a bilateral meeting with Dutch PM Mark Rutte at NATO's two-day Lisbon summit which ends on Saturday.

Good governance
In the current situation, supporting the costly NATO mission in Afghanistan is tantamount to supporting the United States' exit strategy. Conditions put by the Dutch to make a training mission make sense, such as proper authorities in control of army and police, have largely become irrelevant. The practice on the ground in Afghanistan shows what happens without good governance: the unstable Afghan government is busy appointing its friends to senior positions in the police and military. These are men who are more concerned with targeting their personal rivals, than with protecting the Afghan population.

Dutch opposition MP Mariko Peters (Green Left party) argues that "not having a good captain on board" can turn a huge security apparatus into a danger in its own right. Every diplomatic effort should be made, according to Ms Peters, to improve governance.

Sandpit
It looks as though Dutch participation in NATO's 2011 mission in Afghanistan will amount to nothing more than hurrying along and increasing the numbers. In just a year and a half, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and policemen need to be disciplined. The Netherlands could join the German sandpit in Kunduz and teach Afghan police recruits, using toy cars and Taliban figures. They are welcome to join in, as long as they keep their mouths shut.