One of the legacies 9/11 has bequeathed on the Western world is the collective kneejerk response to terrorist attacks: al-Qaeda’s to blame. But figures show that the proportion of attacks in Europe carried out by Islamists is extremely limited. It is actually our deep-seated fear that is the measure of the terrorists’ success.

It’s “understandable” that, since 9/11, acts of terrorism in the collective memory have come to be associated with al-Qaeda, says Rik Coolsaet, Professor of International Relations at Belgium’s Ghent University and member of the European Network of Experts on Radicalisation (ENER). But, says Professor Coolsaet, this mindset is not justified: the majority of attacks in Europe are not the work of jihadi terrorists, but of lone operators – separatists and nationalists.

“The tragic events in Oslo are just the tip of the iceberg. In the past few years, there have been hundreds of attempted terrorist attacks – generally small-scale - by separatists; less than ten of these attacks were committed by Muslims. So that correlation in our minds between terrorism on one hand and ‘that has something to do with Islam’ on the other has to stop. It just doesn’t match the statistics.”

More dead in road accidents
The total number of attacks in Europe has actually decreased. In 2010, there were 249 incidents, according to a Europol report – of which three were Islamic attacks – compared to 498 in 2006. Since 2001, 350 people have died at the hands of terrorists. “That's fewer than the number of victims of road accidents or domestic violence” says Edwin Bakker, professor of counter-terrorism studies at Leiden University.

In the 1970s and 1980s, terrorist attacks claimed the lives of more victims compared to the present situation. “The attacks themselves weren’t as spectacular as London, Madrid or Oslo,” explains Professor Bakker, “but they happened on an almost monthly basis. At Orly airport, someone started shooting wildly – 17 dead; a night-club was burned down – 30 dead; hostage incidents and so on.” In other words, the impact of today’s attacks is greater, the total number is smaller.

Anti-angst
But much of the counter-terrorism effort concentrates on jihadist attacks. That makes it easy for terrorists to operate, says Bakker. Terrorism is defined as the use of force by individuals or organisations to intimidate others to achieve political and ideological goals. “Through alarmist responses, terrorist groups achieve their goal: to generate fear. In this way, they’re encouraged to carry out even more attacks.”

“If you want terrorism to succeed, all you have to do is act like you’re afraid. If you are of the opinion that these terrorists may have a viewpoint, but their methods of proclaiming it are unacceptable, then the last thing you should do is over-react to what they are doing to draw attention to themselves. That’s what we've been doing for the past few years. Al-Qaeda has become synonymous with evil and 9/11 is looked on as the beginning of a new era by some people. Well, that’s doing al-Qaeda a great service.”

No superheroes
What should we do then? Pretend nothing’s wrong? “Of course, everything’s not all right, but we shouldn’t make it bigger than it is,” says Bakker. “There’s a tendency to make terrorists seem like people with super powers,” affirms Professor Coolsaet. “That’s discouraging because the enemy then appears to be more powerful. But they’re no more intelligent than your average Dutchman or Belgian. If we recall the reality of Theo van Gogh’s murderer, Mohammed Bouyeri, then we see they’re anything but superheroes.”

Professor Coolsaet claims that the al-Qaeda network is falling apart. “Just as with all terrorist groups, they form, consolidate and then collapse. That’s an historical pattern.”

We are not afraid
Terrorism experts are calling for an anti-fear policy. It could have a positive effect if authorities develop more awareness in the way they condemn acts of terrorism – without embellishing the facts or truth in any way, Mr Bakker claims. That happened in the 1970s in the case of attacks carried out by leftwing extremists and, more recently, during the attacks on schools in Finland. Also the ‘lone wolf’ attack by Karst Tates on the Dutch royal family on Queen’s Day in 2009, when he tried to drive into their open-top bus at top speed, was not labelled a terrorist attack, despite his political motivation.

Director of the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism Peter Knoope alludes to the British movement ‘We are not afraid’ founded in the aftermath of the London attacks: “People draw strength from these kinds of initiatives.” He continues:

“Perhaps counter-terrorism is too focused on fighting the terrorists and protecting potential targets and not enough on fighting fear. It’s probably an aspect that's overlooked and one we should pay more attention to.”

Professor Coolsaet has a message for the security services: “Be a bit more relaxed. These are bad times for terrorists and wannabe-terrorists.”

(jn/nc)