This week a truth and reconciliation commission in Sri Lanka has started to investigate the circumstances surrounding the end of a truce between the government and Tamil Tiger rebels in 2002. But many observers – especially those outside Sri Lanka – say there are more important things to investigate in Sri Lanka. For example, what really happened during the final months of the war in 2009. Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapakse, however, is firmly opposing such an investigation.

The end of the Tamil war in 2009 was hailed as a major victory by the Sri Lanka government that finally managed to crush the 25-year insurgency by separatist Tamil rebels in the northeast of the country. But the government’s success had a darker side – many civilians were allegedly killed in the final stages of the war and many others were detained in refugee camps under extreme circumstances.

The UN said that at least 7,000 Tamil civilians were killed in the last four months of fighting, while rights groups accused the government of deliberately shelling civilians. In June, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon set up a three-member panel to advise him on accountability for alleged abuses, but the Sri Lankan government has refused to cooperate with it. Supporters of President Rajapakse even attacked a UN building in Colombo to protest against the enquiry.

Hollow measure
Charu Lata Hogg, an associate fellow of the Asia programme at London-based Chatham House, told Radio Netherlands Worldwide it’s ironic that the truth and reconciliation commission for the 2002 truce violation is starting work now, when there’s so much focus on the end of the war in 2009. “It’s an eyewash,” she says. “It’s being regarded as a hollow measure to satisfy the Tamil community. But the community says the commission is meaningless. They would much rather see an independent commission that probes the final days of the war, but that’s highly unlikely.”

The only independent commission that is investigating the end of the war – the three-member UN committee – doesn’t get any support from the Sri Lankan government, on the contrary. “There’s a lot of stonewalling going on,” says Ms Hogg. “The committee has been denied visas to enter Sri Lanka, for instance. But many witnesses from the final stages of the war are now abroad, so the UN team can investigate the matter without actually having to travel to Sri Lanka.”

Cock a snook
The UN committee is expected to publish its findings later this year or early 2011. Europe and the US have been very critical of Sri Lanka, condemning its human rights record and a negative report from the UN could further damage relations. But, says Ms Hogg, the damage to Sri Lanka would be limited: “Sri Lanka has now forged alliances with non-Western countries such as China, Russia and Asian partners. So even though there is opposition and criticism from Western countries, Sri Lanka has not yet lost out to the rest of the world as it has found new economic and political allies. It can cock a snook at the rest of the world.”

Tamils regrouping?
The chances of a truly independent national commission to investigate the final days of the Tamil war are slim. Mr Rajapakse enjoys overwhelming support and proposed constitutional changes mean he may be in power for the next ten years. And with no real possibility of reconciliation during that time, there could be problems ahead according to Ms Hogg. “It’s a period in which Tamils may regroup. There are signs that the Tamil diaspora is willing to fund a Tamil militancy once again. The hardline approach by the Sri Lanka government after the 2009 Tamil downfall means that the conflict is far from over. It was the end of the war, but not the end of the conflict.”