Concerns are growing that radical Islamic terrorism may return to Egypt after the fall of Mubarak. Around 17,000 people escaped from nine Egyptian prisons in the chaos during the revolution in the first half of February. Hundreds of them were affiliated to radical Jihad Islamic groups.

By Mohammed Abdulrahman, RNW's Arabic editor in Cairo 

Egypt’s biggest Islamic groups, al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, and Tanzim al-Jihad, both denounced violence some time ago. However, a number of their members rejected the initiative to abandon violence, and many of them have now escaped from prison.

Former vice-president Omar Suleiman has warned that many dangerous terrorists may be on the loose. The US government is also concerned by the development.

State of emergency
These fears have been compounded by the appearance of convicted terrorist Sami Shihab, who escaped from prison in Egypt ten days ago, next to a leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Naserella, at a public rally in Beirut this week. Shihab, who is Lebanese, was sentenced to life-imprisonment in Egypt after being convicted of planning terrorist attacks in that country.

Another reason for the fears is that the Egyptian State Security Intelligence Agency, which is charged with preventing terrorism, failed to stop the recent mass protests in Cairo. A number of violent radicals are benefitting from the relaxed atmosphere currently prevailing in Egypt. If the ruling Supreme Council of Armed Forces lifts the state of emergency imposed 30 years ago, as it promised, it could give the radicals even more opportunity to regroup.

Al-Jamaa al-Islamiya has already held its first ever public meeting in the south of Cairo, where it organised peaceful celebrations following the revolution.

New democracy
Nevertheless, not everybody agrees that Egypt is likely return to the violent politics of the past. Abul Ila Madi, a moderate Islamist leader of al-Wasat Party, argues:

“The vast majority of 1990s Jihadists abandoned violence a long time ago. No group of any significance is in favour of violence now. The Egyptian people who stood up to keep law and order in the absence of police, have gained new confidence and will not allow any group to drag us back to violence. Furthermore, the brutal repression of radical Islamists was one of the reasons for the violence. This will disappear with the formation of a new democracy.”

Dr Hilmi Sha’rawi, a secular left-wing researcher, says:

“These kinds of fears are part of American and Western attempts to use Islam and Islamists to scare us and the rest of the world. There is no reason for fundamental Islamists to return to violence and terrorism in the new democratic Egypt. And now the Egyptian people are capable of preventing this.”

Era of violence
He also dismisses the notion that the state intelligence agencies have been weakened. According to him, the Egypt state and its intelligence agencies are still intact and are capable of operating at both a national and international level.

“The era of violence is behind us,” says Issam al-Arian, a prominent leader of the Muslim Brotherhood. “The radical Jihad groups should have learnt their lesson now. Our people proved that change is possible by peaceful means. Violence will not return to Egypt.”

It is unlikely that the Jihad violence of the 1980s and 1990s will return. However, the fundamentalist Jihadists were not fighting for democracy and human rights. They wanted to establish an Islamic state, and have always considered democracy an alien concept and a sign of western political and cultural domination. As long as these ideological elements exist, it would be too optimistic to simply rule out the possibility of Jihad violence.