“It's not likely that exhausted, fasting Muslims will have energy or appetite for too much politics,” says Nabila, a 31-year-old teacher in Cairo. But the start of Islam’s holy month of Ramadan on Monday does not mean the end of the Arab Spring, just that it will move “from Tahir square to TV screens”.

During Ramadan, Muslims neither eat nor drink between sunrise and sunset. Fasting in the heat of August is physically demanding and, says Nabila, “most, if not all, of the present demonstrations, strikes and sit-ins will end during Ramadan. Nobody will go out to protest or shout in the streets”.

Momentum slowed
So for hundreds of thousands of people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Syria, the holy month may be an interval to draw breath after long months of troubles, riots, protests and brutal repression. The rhythm of the ongoing revolutions will change and, with violence particularly abhorred during Ramadan on religious grounds, perhaps also the intensity.

Many fear that if the momentum of protest is lost for a whole month it will not be easy to pick up again and that Ramadan may be a chance for repressive regimes to regain the upper hand. Libyan leader Colonel Gaddafi is already calling for a cease fire during Ramadan.

Ibrahim Eldebashi, a senior diplomat lobbying for the rebels in New York, rejects the call, describing it as an attempt by Gaddafi to embarrass NATO into suspending its military campaign.

Many Libyans would prefer to see no fighting during Ramadan but, says Mr Eldebashi, Gaddafi’s “own troops will never halt fighting and we will not give him the opportunity to reinforce his demoralised army”.

A less lavish feast
Under the strict secular dictatorship of Ben Ali and his predecessor Bourguiba, daily life in Tunisia was always less affected by Ramadan than other Islamic countries in the Middle East.

The first Ramadan under democracy might be a little different, with the emergence of long suppressed Islamists. The extent of their influence is still unclear though. According to journalist Ismael Dbara, “more people are to be seen with conservative Islamic clothing in the streets and, unlike the last three decades, mosques will remain open after prayers”.

Tunisian TV channels traditionally broadcast endless soap operas during Ramadan, but Mr Dbara believes there may be some room for politics on the small screen this year. One difference Tunisians are unlikely to welcome is the less lavish Iftar meal to break their fast at sunset. The economy has suffered under six months of unrest with tourists staying away and purchasing power diminished.

Influential imams
The political situation in Syria remains particularly volatile, with the regime cracking down hard on protest. Government forces are said to be intensifying their campaign ahead of Ramadan, while the opposition is planning daily demonstrations during the holy month.

The grand Mufti of Syria has denied reports that President Bashar al-Assad is considering banning the Taraweeh, a special evening prayer for Ramadan which is widely attended. True or not, the reports reflect concerns in Damascus that large numbers of Sunni Muslims will flock to mosques all over the country during Ramadan and be influenced by Sunni Imams who are far from friendly to the al-Assad regime.

Nasir Ali in Sana’a says Ramadan usually means huge changes to the routine of daily life in Yemen, with government activity grinding to a near complete standstill. But it is difficult to anticipate how the holy month will affect the six-month old political standoff in the country. It’s likely both protestors and the government will adopt a wait and see attitude until the end of Ramadan.

Charity with strings attached
In Cairo, Nabila is pleased Egypt’s elections have been delayed so they will not follow hard on the heels of Ramadan. The holy month, she says, “gives too much media time and exposure to Islam and political Islam which would not be fair for the others”. She also warns that the richer candidates may exploit the Ramadan tradition of charity and almsgiving for political ends – something that may already be happening.

According to reports in Egyptian media, political parties are rushing to the poor neighbourhoods of Cairo to distribute food and other Ramadan related goods. Secular parties and their candidates are just as eager as Islamic ones in competing to win the hearts and stomachs of the poor. Democracy in action.

(/hs)