Will the world come to its senses and finally tackle climate change? What’s the biggest threat we face: nuclear bombs or the prophecies of Nostradamus? What will the European Union do next to lower its profile? There are so many questions and so few certainties about the coming 12 months. But RNW is prepared to take a stab at it, so here goes…

As far as the environment’s concerned, 2009 was the year that ended not with a bang but a whimper. All the hype around the Copenhagen Climate conference fizzled out into a lacklustre compromise that satisfied no one. The countries present made some good resolutions – but the agreement reached was not legally binding, and our environment reporter Willemien Groot isn’t confident that resolutions will result in action:

“The countries involved won’t do nothing - that would be too obvious. Of course they will invest in green technology, give some aid to the least developed countries and lower their emissions by a percent or two. But in the end, the UN member states will do what they always do: look at each other. Point their finger at the wrongdoers, and ignore the obedient.”

What Afghans really want
Afghanistan was constantly in the news throughout 2009. Increasing violence, numerous fatalities – both civilian and military – and elections plagued by fraud. We already know what US president Barack Obama is planning for Afghanistan in 2010 – an extra 30,000 troops. RNW’s Bette Dam has just returned from an extended visit to the country and told us there’s a wide gap between what the Afghans themselves would like the New Year to bring and what they’re likely to get.

“Afghans are the experts when it comes to their own country and they know more foreign soldiers to fight the enemy will not change anything. Because the “enemy” is also Afghan. They do want help from the US and NATO – but to reconcile the enemy, not kill them. They want a mediator who can help resolve decades-old disputes. They’re looking for western expertise to advise on building factories or bridges or dams. The West talks often of the need to “capture hearts and minds” in the Afghanistan conflict, but there’s a gap between where those hearts and minds are and where the Americans are searching for them. And it doesn’t look like growing any smaller in 2010.”

The nuclear challenge
While the war in Afghanistan may be the most pressing military concern in the coming year, a lesser-known security issue is going to be Russia and America’s negotiation of a new nuclear weapons treaty. You may not have noticed it, but since 5 December we’ve been living in a nuclear treaty-free world following the expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, in which Russia and the US agreed to cut their nuclear stockpiles down to 2,000 warheads. Hans de Vreij, our security and defence editor, doesn’t think its replacement is necessarily going to make the world a safer place.

“A new treaty will further reduce that number to some 1,500 warheads each. These have an explosive yield of at least ten times the 1945 Hiroshima bomb, and among them, the US and Russia still will be able to destroy the entire world a few times over, and then some. The strategic balance, as it's called, will remain in place. The REAL challenge for Washington and Moscow is, of course, to get the smaller nuclear states to join treaties. But I'm afraid that the deterrent effect of possessing nuclear weapons has been so amply demonstrated ever since Hiroshima that few, if any, of the smaller nuclear weapons states will want to give up the one real and ultimate stick they have.”

Good news and bad news for our wallets
Economic insecurity has been a feature of many people’s lives over the past 12 months. And opinions are divided about the financial forecast for 2010, as our economics editor Johan Huizinga explains:

"Let’s start with the good news: most economies have started to grow again and will do so in 2010. And a fiscal amnesty for tax evaders has brought billions and billions of euros back home to Europe. And now for the bad news: most countries will need this extra cash more than ever. Because the banks, saved by taxpayers money, are more focused on restoring their own financial reserves than on lending money for new economic activities. More bad news? Yes, unemployment is expected to rise further in most European countries."

We shouldn’t despair though says Huizinga, who went on-line to dig out some of the less predictable predictions in the economic sphere.

“According to Nostradamus, WW III will break out in November and wars have always been the best recipe to end economic crisis. And if this won’t help here is another one: 2010 will bring us visitors from outer space and Planet Earth creates new markets in outer space."

Disappointment for Brussels
Well, Nostradamus and creatures from outer space might be going too far for some, so let’s come thumping back to Earth with the view from Brussels. 2010 was meant to be the year when the EU got a bright new start. The first of Jan brings us the first European president along with his foreign affairs supremo; figures who would send Europe striding like a colossus across the world stage. But our Brussels correspondent Vanessa Mock isn’t convinced the reality is going to live up to the theory.

“The sad reality is the EU has chosen midgets and not giants as its leaders. EU diplomats predict that President Herman van Rompuy and Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton will both go quietly about their jobs. They won’t take the reins to make Europe a trailblazer; they’ll stick to the middle of the road. Don’t look for fireworks in Europe in 2010 – they’ll be going off elsewhere.”

Fireworks for The Hague
So no fireworks in Brussels – but our Dutch political editor John Tyler is predicting plenty in The Hague, kicking off in January with the trial of controversial anti-Islam MP Geert Wilders for inciting hatred. Even if he’s found guilty, he’s still on a winning streak in the court of public opinion. His Freedom Party just keeps doing better and better in the opinion polls - something not to be ignored with elections due in the spring of 2011. But his chance may come even sooner according to Tyler.

“None of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende’s three cabinets have made it the full four years. And just look at the coalition – it’s a marriage of convenience, a divorce for the sake of the kids is making more and more sense. And the fun has yet to begin. In 2010, the government’s going to propose ways to cut 20 percent from the national budget – one fifth of total spending gone in a flash. I don’t think the government’s going to make it to Christmas.”

So who knows, before the year is out John could be interviewing Prime Minister Geert Wilders – and he could be the first Dutch leader with a criminal record.

From B’s to P’s
Outside the world of politics, Dutch society editor and resident RNW trend spotter Robert Chesal is also seeing some changes ahead for the Netherlands.

“2010 will the be the year when we cast aside the three Bs - Bling, Botox and Bimbos - and replace them with higher aspirations like honesty, fairness and sustainability as the consumer is converted to the three Ps: Profit, People and Planet. I'll be buying less battery chickens, I'll avoid purchasing cosmetics merely "because I'm worth it" and I'll get my slave-free chocolate from sustainably run shops instead of hypermarkets. In keeping with the new trend towards sustainable banking and finance, my broker will help me divest from cluster bombs and landmines. My money will make love, not war.”

So there you have it, our in-house predictions for 2010. Check this space in 12 months’ time to find out just how accurate we were. Or weren’t…