Pakistan’s most wanted man, Baitullah Mehsud, is thought to be dead after an attack by a US drone in South Waziristan. But although his death is a major coup for Pakistan’s security forces, it is unlikely to have a significant effect on international troops fighting over the border in Afghanistan.

CIA-operated drones have been targeting Mehsud’s territory since June after the Pakistani government told its army to go after the militant leader. The US placed a 5-million-dollar bounty on his head.

Major setback
Baitullah Mehsud was credited with uniting around 13 Taliban factions in north west Pakistan. He is thought to have controlled up to 20,000 Taliban fighters and was the organisation’s chief strategist. Over the past two years his followers have mounted attacks on Western forces in Afghanistan and government and security forces in Pakistan.

International defense and strategic expert, Rahul Bedi from Jane’s International Group says:

“I don’t know whether it will make a difference as far as the cross border traffic of militants and Taliban is concerned, but it would definitely be a setback for the Taliban and Al-Qaeda leadership which is now in a sense fairly amalgamated. So it would make a difference, and it really depends on how much his successor grows in the job.”

Revenge attacks
Pakistan’s army is already in the final stages of a campaign to clear insurgents out of the Swat Valley. The removal of Baitullah Mehsud leaves open the question of whether the army will now carry out a major ground offensive against his stronghold. Meanwhile, Rahul Bedi says there is a clear risk of revenge attacks by Mehsud’s loyalists inside Pakistan.

“There is a meeting going on in one of the tribal areas in South Waziristan where there are three possible successors to Baitullah Mehsud and they’re all leaders of Taliban fighters in their own right. So it is quite possible that a spate of suicide bombings or some kind of attacks will take place in Pakistan in retaliation to Mehsud being killed.”

Successor
Mehsud’s successor will need to be able to impose himself within the loose-knit confederation of regional commanders if he is to keep Pakistan’s Taliban factions together.

listen to a Newsline interview with Rahul Bedi