The Pakistani army has announced victory over the Taliban in the Swat valley, saying only small pockets of resistance remain. But there's no respite for the army, as a convoy in North Waziristan was ambushed on Sunday, killing 16 soldiers. The ambush signaled a violent end to a key peace deal with the regional Taliban faction.

The failure of the peace accord is a blow to the government, which had planned to follow its successful Swat offensive with an assault on South Waziristan, expecting to use North Waziristan as a transit route. Retired Pakistani army general Talat Masood told RNW the Taliban is trying to dilute the army’s assault.

“It was a clear warning to them that the conflict will not remain confined to South Waziristan, but will also spread to adjacent North Waziristan and other portions of the tribal belt. It is very likely that this insurgency and these attacks will multiply so that the army is compelled to open several fronts, and this is how they will like to diffuse the military effort.”

For its part, Mr Masood says, the army will try to contain certain insurgencies with air strikes and artillery, while focusing on South Waziristan for the time being.

Hard nut
With large-scale fighting in the Swat valley over, the Pakistan army has set its sights on South Waziristan, the headquarters of Pakistani Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud. Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is also believed to be hiding in Waziristan’s border region with Afghanistan, a maze of mountains that has repelled major powers for centuries.

“South Waziristan is the mother of all insurgencies in Pakistan,” Mr Masood says.

“Baitullah Mehsud has a well trained militia supporting him, and the army is now focusing on him because he is creating a lot of problems in Pakistan and abroad. But it will be a hard nut to crack because the geography and history of that place are different to that of the Swat.”

Mr Masood expects the army will start by “softening up” the resistance using air strikes and artillery, before embarking on a ground offensive. The US drone strikes – which another Taliban commander said was the reason for ending his separate peace deal with the government – are likely to continue.

Follow-up actions
The Pakistani army is walking a delicate path against insurgencies from a tangle of tribal groups and Taliban factions. In February, a peace deal in the Swat valley allowed the Taliban to impose Sharia law in the area. The truce later backfired as insurgents moved into major cities in northern Pakistan, leading to a major conflict causing more than 2 million refugees.

Mr Masood says the army has little choice but to tackle the disparate insurgencies separately.

“These are multiple forces and they are not a composite group. Some are sectarian in nature, some are purely criminal activities, there are some which are ideological. South Waziristan, for example, is both an ideological insurgency and a power struggle.

“It’s a very complex situation and it’s not easy for the military and even Pakistani analysts.”

The success in Swat could pave the way for victory over Taliban forces, Mr Masood says, but only if the government quickly moves to secure safety and economic opportunities for refugees. 

“What is important is whether they’ll be able to provide good security and safety arrangements for the people, while at the same time creating economic development in that district so that people are not lured away by these militants.

“The government will have to do a lot of work. The future of Swat and other areas will depend on how the follow-up actions are taken.”