A new Dutch cabinet is about to be sworn in. It is an historic cabinet in many respects – the first Liberal prime minister since early last century, the first minority government and first government supported by a right-wing, populist party.
It seems a precarious formula. A minority government (formed by the free-market Liberal VVD and – now much smaller – Christian Democrat CDA) with the support of a partner in parliament (the new, anti-Islam Freedom Party) giving it a mere one-seat majority in the lower house. And no majority at all in the - less relevant - upper house.
Will it last? Will this government serve out its four-year term, or will it fall very quickly?
Five reasons why this cabinet will be in power for years:
- No one wants elections. If this government were to fall, new elections would be called. Geert Wilders wants his Freedom Party to gain more experience before he's ready to govern. Nearly every other party is scared of new elections.
- Something for everyone. Since the cabinet itself does not enjoy a majority in parliament, it will have to search for votes for each legislation proposal. Parties are already lining up with pet projects they think could be implemented.
- The Liberals (VVD) + Christan Democrats (CDA) do well together. The two parties that form this government like governing together. When they have been in coalitions, the cabinets have lasted.
- Denmark. The current construction featuring a minority government supported by a populist, anti-immigrant party is based on the situation in Denmark. It has worked well there for ten years now.
- Inherent stability. Pragmatists will win the day, the institutions of government will take over, and people will once again get bored by the lack of controversy in The Hague.
Five reasons why this cabinet will fall within a few months:
- Mr Wilders wants new elections. Geert Wilders will get frustrated when this cabinet does not implement some of his Freedom Party’s policies as forcefully as he would like. He will pull the plug, counting on winning the next election outright.
- It only takes one. With a majority of one seat in the lower house of parliament, it will not take much for a motion of no confidence to succeed. Just one MP could make it happen. At least two Christian Democrats are not very comfortable with this cabinet, and the Freedom Party has a proven rabble-rouser named Hero Brinkman.
- Mr Wilders' unpredictability. Geert Wilders likes to be provocative. He has refrained from making extremely controversial comments in the last few months, since this coalition started to take shape. But that is not likely to last. He may provoke again, and one of the two coalition members may decide enough is enough.
- Denmark. The two countries are not really that comparable after all. And now that the Danish government has to cut the budget, as the new Dutch cabinet is doing, support from the populist party in parliament is receding. The upcoming Danish elections will bring an end to the Danish model. The Dutch cabinet won't make it that far.
- Inherent instability. The Netherlands has entered an era of instability. Voters don't know what they want and are constantly searching for a better option. With the current political system, this country has become the Italy of the north, changing governments as often as one changes one's shirt.
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Comparisons with Hitler are puerile. I don't recall mass immigration of Jews into Germany in 1930s, Jewish terrorist attacks, Jewish murder of German film-maker, nor a Jewish empire stretching from Indonesia to Morocco that in every country imposes draconian laws limiting basic freedoms like
- freedom of criticize the governing religion
- freedom to preach other religions
- gay rights
- freedom of women to determine their own movements in society
The Islamic empire is vastly more powerful than Jews ever were, so it is not to be taken lightly as a potential adversary of the West. A significant number of immigrant muslims pledge more allegiance to "nation of Islam" than to their adoptive Western country, that is concerning and a civil security threat if the demographic trends of mass immigration and high birth rates continue throughout future decades.
Islam shows widespread defaulting to dictatorships and military rule because the religion is autocratic - the relationship between Islam and secular society is essentially untested and unknown, and we do not want to be swamped at this "experimental" stage of multiculturalism by a muslim power bloc that has values totally opposed to liberal society. The balance is a delicate one, but be under no illusions, open societies are vulnerable to intolerant ideologies, as Karl Popper wrote in 1940s - this is a paradox, how does one tolerate the intolerant?
If the demographics are small enough, it does not matter, it is live and let live policy. That is the current situation with Islam. At some point we will need to cause internal reform within Islam, or to check its growth by some means, else things like gay rights, freedom of religion, and the internal coherence of liberal democracies are going to come under strong pressure from an increasingly powerful religious lobby. This would of course be a disaster for Europe.
I really wish people would exercise a little more brain power, and not simply throw words around like "fascist", "racist" and "islamophobe", none of which is accurate in this case (Fascism involves militaristic society, Wilders is a passifist; Islam is not a race; and cautioning against unchecked mass immigration from largely intolerant islamic countries is not phobic at all, it is completely rational).
It won't last a full 4yr term. Why? For it to do so Geert Wilders the BLOND HITLER would have to adopt one of two positions. First he would have to tone down his language and rhetoric and concentrate on delivering economically and socially beneficial policies that are practicable and positive, or second adopt a very aggressive tone on his single issue of Islamic immigration. Given that he is not good on delivering benefits that have nothing to do with Muslims or immigration I doubt he will adopt the first posture.
In-addition he is busy building an international freedom movement targeting Islam. He's meteoric rise to power is based on his anti Islamic stance. Abandoning that would be largely counter productive to his single issue politics. Hence I am certain he will not be able to tame his inflammatory tongue. Given that scenario the chance of the coalition lasting it's full term is highly unlikely.
1. "It won't last a full 4yr term. Why? For it to do so Geert Wilders the BLOND HITLER would have to adopt one of two positions. First he would have to tone down his language and rhetoric and concentrate on delivering economically and socially beneficial policies that are practicable and positive, or second adopt a very aggressive tone on his single issue of Islamic immigration.".........Why can't Wilders do both at the same time? He is capable of multi-tasking. 2. "He's meteoric rise to power is based on his anti Islamic stance.".........If what you are saying is true (and, I agree with you), what does that about the people who put him into office? A lot of people voted for for him and his party for the reason you gave. Why? Because they perceive they are being abused by the immigrants who flee to the Netherlands and the government that allowed them inside. Whatever their perceptions, they voted for him because he speaks-up for them and their votes allowed them to vent their anger against the previous government who cared nothing for them and their wishes. Lets face the truth for what it is: He got elected because a vast amount of Dutch citizens were tired of being abused by the immigrants and he spoke -up for them.
It won't last a full 4yr term. Why? For it to do so Geert Wilders the BLOND HITLER would have to adopt one of two positions. First he would have to tone down his language and rhetoric and concentrate on delivering economically and socially beneficial policies that are practicable and positive, or second adopt a very aggressive tone on his single issue of Islamic immigration. Given that he is not good on delivering benefits that have nothing to do with Muslims or immigration I doubt he will adopt the first posture.
In-addition he is busy building an international freedom movement targeting Islam. He's meteoric rise to power is based on his anti Islamic stance. Abandoning that would be largely counter productive to his single issue politics. Hence I am certain he will not be able to tame his inflammatory tongue. Given that scenario the chance of the coalition lasting it's full term is highly unlikely.
There is one more substantial reason for this government to fall, perhaps not in a few months, but between one to two years maximum. That is that the PVV is the only party to be elected on the grounds of a crisis and a promise to act quickly upon it, producing rapid results for its supporters. With sweeping statements about the inherent dangers of the Netherlands' Muslim populace, Geert cannot introduce the measures such as mass deportation which the Rutte-Verhagen accord has already rejected as too extreme, what PVV voters claim cannot happen soon enough. The expections of PVV supporters dismiss any constraints placed upon the PVV, no matter the pragmatic demands of coalition government. The CDA has come into this minority cabinet weakened by division and discord, down to the very principles of its founding Charter. How long this dilemma can withstand the escalating demands of the PVV and the attempts of the VVD to keep to the accord, will undeniably produce visible stress fractures on the CDA. The pressure placed upon the PVV to get everything from its platform agenda integrated into government policy and action will be nothing short of enormous. Momentum is the key to future success for the PVV, a serious lack of it to produce a rapid timetable will be construed as a willing watering down of the PVV's promises, or even an outright deviation from established policy. Geert would then have to find a means to discredit one or both members of the accord and terminate it, forcing new elections with he and PVV as the innocents in the whole affair.
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