A change of power in Germany will not have any major consequences for the Netherlands. At the 'Wahlparty' at the Nieuwspoort press centre in The Hague most people thought Germany wouldn’t change course much with Angela Merkel at the helm. As well as sympathy for the SPD, there was hope that a new centre-right coalition would have more vigour.

As the first exit polls appeared on the TV screen on Sunday evening, just about everyone was surprised by the dramatic losses of the SPD. Shortly before this, the politicians, journalists and others who had gathered there to hear the results had been reminded that CDU and SPD were just about neck-and-neck in the last poll.

 
In a clinch
Even former Christian Democrat minister Ben Bot did not think the social democrats deserved such a beating. But he was pleased with the prospect of a centre-right coalition with CDU/CSU and FDP.

 
The large coalition of the two 'giants' CDU and SPD had each other too much in a clinch. Mr Bot thinks Christian Democrat and liberal policies are a better match.

 
But he does not expect big changes in the area of economics. "As an export country, Germany is too dependent on developments elsewhere in the world, for example in Asia."

 
Deserters
Deputy Labour Party Minister for European Affairs Frans Timmermans is disappointed. He puts the losses down to the fact that the SPD was a junior partner in a large coalition. And many voters deserted the Social Democrats for Die Linke, in which dissatisfied SPD members and former communists have joined forces.

 
"The only thing you can blame the SPD for is that it failed to polarise the Merkel coalition. But it is difficult to campaign against the very party you have just spent the last four years in government with," adds Mr Timmermans.

 
Tax cuts
The deputy minister is worried about the FDP’s tax plans. During the campaign, the liberals promised major tax cuts. "Seeing is believing, but if they do managed to push their plans through, Germany will have a massive state deficit. That would be bad of the stability of the euro and therefore bad for the Netherlands."

 
However, like many others in The Hague, Mr Timmermans does not believe things will get that far. Ton Nijhuis, managing director of the Amsterdam Institute for Germany Studies, is not convinced that there is much chance of Chancellor Merkel letting that happen.

 
Backbench rebellion
In addition: if the liberal leader Guido Westerwelle gets his dream job – Foreign Minister  –  he will be very happy. Party discipline in the FDP is strict. So there is little chance of backbench rebellions if the liberals do not get their way, something the SPD did have to contend with.

Mr Nijhuis thinks a centre-right coalition will be able to produce a stable government. In the past four years, Angela Merkel has demonstrated that she is capable of calmly forging compromises and building coalitions.

 
No surprises
So things will be alright, even if there is a centre-right government in Germany. And it is probably not such a bad thing for the SPD to spend some time in the opposition, sighs a party supporter. It gives the party time to brush up its image and put an end to the exodus to Die Linke.

 
The Netherlands can rest assured, the German government is not about to do anything unexpected.

RNW translation (nc)