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Saturday 26 May RNW - NEWS AND ANALYSIS FROM THE NETHERLANDS IN 10 LANGUAGES, WORLDWIDE 24/7 ON RADIO, TV AND ONLINE
A NATO soldier patrols in the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica, Kosovo
Hermione Gee's picture
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The Hague, Netherlands
The Hague, Netherlands

Kosovo decision will fuel divisiveness

Published on : 21 July 2010 - 1:20pm | By Hermione Gee (Photo: ANP)
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It's a member of the World Bank and the IMF and it's already recognised by 70 states around the world, but the status of the small Balkan territory of Kosovo is still in question.
 
After Kosovo unilaterally seceded from Serbia in 2008, an angry Serbia pressed the UN General Assembly to bring the case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague.
 
Own advantage

This Thursday, the court will issue a ruling - actually known as an 'advisory opinion' - on the legality of the territory's self-declared independence. With the United States backing Kosovo and the Russians backing Serbia the decision will be closely followed and hotly debated. Each side will latch on to it and try to use it to its own advantage.
 
Petrit Qollaku is a journalist in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo. Many countries have been on the fence about recognising Kosovo's independence but now, he says, that might change.
 
"There's a feeling among political commentators that Serbia did this just to gain time in stopping recognition of Kosovo while gaining plusses from the EU. Kosovo's government has been lobbying throughout the world [to get] countries to recognise Kosovo's independence. In the majority of cases, the foreign ministry couldn't get a positive reply because of the ICJ's [pending] advisory opinion on Kosovo's legitimacy."
 
But Petrit Qollaku says there is now more optimism in Pristina that countries which have been holding back on recognising Kosovo will do so after the ICJ ruling.
 
New negotiations

Serbian officials are also optimistic, says Belgrade journalist Bojana Barlovac. And they have their sights set on the UN.
 
"Even though experts on international law believe [...] that an advisory opinion isn't a verdict - so there cannot be a winner or a loser in this case - and that the UN General Assembly has no obligation to obey this ICJ opinion or ruling, people still believe and Serbian politicians are quite optimistic that the ruling will be in favour of Serbia and this will make them pass a new resolution at the UN General Assembly which would request new negotiations."
 
But Susi Dennison of the European Council on Foreign Relations sounds a cautionary note. She says we shouldn't expect a legal decision to solve what's essentially a political problem.
 
"The ICJ opinion isn't binding and, anyway, I think it doesn't seem likely to be a very clear statement either for or against the state of Kosovo in the sense that the question that was asked of the court was whether or not Kosovo had violated international law by declaring independence."
 
Passing the ball
Ms Dennison thinks that the court, by following its remit quite strictly will ultimately pass the 'ball' back to the politicians for them to come up with a solution. She doesn't think the ICJ ruling itself will give either Kosovo or Serbia a resolution of the issue one way or the other.
 
That doesn't mean the court's opinion won't make a difference. For one thing, it will certainly catapult the whole debate about Kosovo and its status back into the spotlight.
 
The UN is expected to call for dialogue on the territory in September. With the US and many EU member states backing Kosovo, and Russia on the side of Serbia, it's likely to be a heated debate.
 
Still at stake is the question of whether those talks will deal with purely technical issues such as trade agreements and recognition of Kosovo's own passports, or whether Kosovo's status as an independent republic will also be up for discussion. Whatever the ICJ rules this Thursday, these issues are set to remain highly divisive.

Discussion

Anonymous 22 July 2010 - 6:54am / Israel

What next, is every "one horse town" going to declare independence and get away with it?

Jelena 22 July 2010 - 2:02am / US

Kosovo is Serbia. There is no way around the law unless Clinton is Secretary General of the UN.

Vera Gottlieb 21 July 2010 - 9:04pm / Germany

And boy, oh boy! will Kosovo ever be sorry for having gotten entangled with the IMF. It has left pain and sorrow wherever it went.

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