The 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution in Iran passed off largely peacefully on Thursday, after promised opposition protests failed to materialise. The authorities had braced themselves for violent clashes, but demonstrators were far-outweighed by the thousands of pro-government supporters.

So is this the beginning of the end for the Green Revolution? Or were they simply scared away?

Thousands of supporters of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lined the streets of Tehran waving flags, in a strong show of support for his conservative regime. While there were reports of attacks on dissidents, there was none of the large-scale violence some had predicted. Opposition leaders Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Karroubi had asked their supporters not to shout confrontational anti-government slogans, and instead to “celebrate unity,” says our correspondent Thomas Erdbrink.

“There are several reasons why people might not have shown up today. I think the first one could be fear… another reason could be that the opposition people were there but they just didn’t make themselves known.”

Listen to an interview with our Tehran correspondent Thomas Erdbrink

The opposition Rahesabz website said some demonstrators gathered in Sadeghieh Square, about one kilometre away from where people gathered to mark the toppling of the US-backed shah in 1979. Witnesses claim that Khatami and Mehdi’s cars were targeted by police officers and security guards – but those reports cannot be independently verified.

'Flagrant abuse'
The anniversary coincided with the release of a Human Rights Watch report, that says the government’s crackdown on dissidents since the disputed June 2009 election is: “broader and the abuses more flagrant than previously reported.”

Inevitably, questions have been raised about the strength of the Green Revolution movement which challenged President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory in that election. But Thomas Erdbrink says the relatively low turnout is not necessarily a sign the opposition is losing steam, and that it is simply changing its tactics:

“One the one hand it could be becoming weaker, on the other hand it could be proof for the leaders of the green movement to show the government supporters ‘look, our people can behave, the have legitimate demands, they are no rioters as you always call them’ ….On the other hand, the fact they didn’t come out in large numbers – which is basically their only weapon against the government – shows that this civil movement is definitely weakening.”

The effect of this, Erdbrink says, will be to strengthen the position of government hardliners who may claim the movement is dead. Their next step, he adds, may well be to arrest its leaders.

Photo: Iranians hold a caricature of the US president Barack Obama during a ceremony marking the 31th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution in Tehran - EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH