War scenes and piracy - Somalia has the world's attention. The country seems to be at the cutting edge of the fight between Western interests on the one hand and two enemies on the other: seaborne criminals and a resurging militant Islam.

Terrorism experts say fighters are moving into Somalia from known al-Qaeda strongholds like Afghanistan and Pakistan, and are joining the Al Shabaab rebel group. This story has been taken up by the international media. Press agencies and newspapers like The Times of London and the Johannesburg-based Mail&Guardian have run articles in the past month musing over what an Al Shahaab takeover could mean for Somalia, the region and the world. ABC News even said that Mogadishu was on its way to becoming a base from which al-Qaeda would start its march into Africa.

But such a prospect would first require the collapse of the current transitional government in Somalia. Will that happen? Dr Knox Chitiyo heads the Africa Department at the Royal United Services Institute in London, a think tank on security and defence. He thinks that the government is weak – but not fatally so:

"The impression one gets is of a very fragile government that’s on the brink of collapse. But it’s not quite that fragile because they have allies, for instance among moderate Islamists. But yes, they are in a hazardous situation."

He adds that even though Al Shabaab fighters may be able to take Mogadishu, it is very unlikely that they would be able to hold on to the city.

Intervene
And in the meantime: what will Somalia’s neighbours do? And the rest of the world?  Mr Chitiyo believes they’ll have to intervene:

"The East African region has been drawn back into the Somali conflict, whether it likes it or not. The Somali government has asked for international assistance. There is still an African Union force there but they do not have the manpower or the logistics to hold Somalia. So we are likely to see a large international force moving into Somalia to fight Al Shabaab and at the same time quiet negotiations between Al Shabaab and the government."

It is precisely this link between African armed groups and al-Qaeda that has heightened international attention for places like Somalia. But this is by no means the only part of Africa where local groups are alleged to have links to the international network that committed the September 11 attacks.

Paris-Dakar rally
On August 14th, a bomb went off at the French embassy in the Mauritanian capital Nouakchott. Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb claimed the attack as its work. Elsewhere in the region, there have been battles between rebels and the army in Mali, abductions of Western tourists and diplomats in neighbouring Niger and this year the world famous Paris-Dakar rally was moved to Argentina, for security reasons.

So is Africa’s vast, dry and seemingly empty Sahel/Sahara region becoming the next Al Qaeda stronghold? Knox Chitiyo thinks we should not be jumping to conclusions:

"We don’t really know enough about these conflicts. We must distinguish between local Islamic groups, who have their own grievances against their governments and genuine al-Qaeda groups operating in Africa. It would be very dangerous to assume that there is some overarching Middle-Eastern al-Qaeda driving these conflicts."

Smuggling routes
For now, the bombing in Nouakchott is unexplained and the battles in Mali and Niger are about control of local smuggling routes (in the case of Mali) and who should profit from the vast uranium deposits (in the case of Niger).

Dr Chityo asserts that it’s mainly African grievances that are driving these conflicts and makes a plea for cool heads and sound policies:

"There was a lot of unease within Africa about the whole War on Terror rhetoric. It seemed very American-driven and in pursuit of American interests mainly. So it would make people extremely uneasy if they began to feel that Africa is now being used as a kind of ramp/off-ramp, if you like, for War on Terror Number Two."

(Listen to the full report on Bridges With Africa, 14 August edition.)