What exactly are today's primary elections in the US and what do they say about the current American political landscape?

Listen to an interview with American Studies Lecturer Ruth Oldenziel

It's gone largely unnoticed, but today, millions of Americans go to the polls to vote in primary elections, which may be a litmus-test for midterm elections in November. The polls are open now in 5 states: Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma and Vermont. But primary elections are different from normal elections in that Republicans and Democratics are not competing against each other. Today's primaries are intra-party competitions whereby party insiders choose who they want to stand in November's midterm election.

Only two years have passed since the end of the last election cycle, but the political parties are already gearing up for another protracted campaign season. Primary elections are significant because in many sections of the country the same political party wins in the November elections. So, in these areas, the primary election effectively determines who will take the Congressional or gubernatorial seat. Ruth Oldenziel, an American Studies Lecturer at the University of Amsterdam, says that the importance of primary elections is lost on many Americans:

"It's not an affair that most voters are interested in. The most motivated voters go to the polls... usually the extremes of the parties will win. So for Republicans it means that mostly people who are affiliated with the Tea Party and for the Democrats, usually the more progressive people."

The Tea Party effect
In today's primary elections, all eyes are on the Republican party. The Grand Old Party, as it's also known, suffered a thorough defeat during the last election cycle, which swept Barack Obama into the presidency and established Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. In Alaska and Arizona, incumbent Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski and John McCain have faced stiff challenges from the right-wing of the party. John McCain has spent more than 20 million US dollars to bolster his campaign. That's more money than Senator McCain has spent on all of his other primary runs combined and he's had to spend that money because the ultra-conservative wing of the Republican party has seemingly spilit off into the Tea Party.

The Tea Party emerged as a protest movement against the Obama administration. Its members espouse strict conservative principles on economics and social policy, accusing the Republican party establishment of giving in to liberal demands. Given the low voter turnout expected today, Ruth Oldenziel says the Tea Party could make gains:

"I think we need to understand the Tea Party as really an internal battle for the soul of the Republican party... The Tea Partiers are making waves now in the primaries because they are the most motivated people. They are the ones who have made some upside victories in some previous elections within the Republican party."

McCain/Palin
One of the more interesting aspects of the primary battle is the fact that both John McCain and Sarah Palin remain major players within the Republican party. Together they were the losing ticket in the 2008 presidential election but that defeat has not swept them from the political stage. McCain looks set to win in Arizona but his primary campaign was no cakewalk. Sarah Palin is not running for political office but she has been called in to endorsed a number candidates. This may all be surprising to outsiders viewing American politics but Ms Oldenziel says McCain and Palin's staying-power makes sense:

"It is two years after this smashing election of Obama, but he has very low [ popularity opionion poll] numbers and both Palin and McCain are recognisable names. American voters go for names that they know... Palin has been associating herself with the Tea Party [but] whether or not she herself is going to be an important name for the next two years... remains to be seen... And that fact that [McCain] is actually spending an extraordinary amount of money, just to get re-elected, shows how much the Republican party has changed."

Looking forward
The primary elections are a prelude to the real contests in the Fall, when tonight's winners will face their opponents from the other political party. So a key question posed by today's vote is how will it affect the outcome in November. One effect of the low voter turnout in the primaries is that candidates at the political extremes often are selected to respresent their parties. But during the November election, the majority of voters are more moderate. This means that voters may have a hard time identifying with the candidates. This is, however, the case for both Republicans and Democrats meaning the overall effect may be neglible. Ms Oldenziel believes there is a better indicator of how the two parties will perform in then Fall:

"We have to remind ourselves that, historically, the party that has the White House loses, on average, 28 seats in the House [of Representatives] and seven in the Senate... In addition to this historical precedent, we also have a severe economic crisis. So, it seems that the Democratic party is going to lose no matter what. The key issue is whether the Democratic party will lose the majority in the House and Senate they have now."

The answer to that question will not be available until November's midterm election, but Ms Oldenziel believes the Democrats may well lose their majority in the House of Representatives while retaining their majority in the Senate. If this is the outcome, it will mean the Obama administration will have a more difficult time passing legislation, but maintaining the majority in the Senate could mean Democrats can stop Republicans from clawing back legislation passed in the past two years, such as landmark health care reform.