Never before in the long history of Egypt has a ruler been ousted by the will of the people. But today, after 18 days of riots and demonstrations demanding his resignation, President Mubarak of Egypt stepped down. Is this a real change for the better for Egypt?
On Friday evening, Vice President Omar Suleiman announced in a brief speech broadcast by Egyptian state television that President Mubarak had decided to step down and hand over power to the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces. This announcement ended many days of apparent internal dispute between the army and the remnants of the establishment.
Mr Mubarak wanted to stay in power, albeit symbolically, after handing over actual power to his recently appointed Vice President, General Omar Suleiman. This was not a solution the army was prepared to back. That message was clearly expressed at the first meeting of the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces in three decades, held on Thursday in the absence of President Mubarak and Vice President Suleiman. After four days of manoeuvring and agonising, the army prevailed and foiled Suleiman’s attempts to keep Mubarak in the saddle.
Military rule
Now that full power has been transferred to the military, the first question is when and how the army will hand over power to an elected civilian government. The Egyptian army enjoyed the full support of the protestors and was always considered a reasonable alternative for a period of transition. But the history of the Middle East is littered with precedents where the army took over power for a limited period only to stay for good.
Despite the warnings of history, Egypt is not a banana republic and the forces at work are so complex that it seems unlikely that the army will be tempted to hold on to power longer than is strictly necessary. Especially given what they have witnessed in the streets of Cairo in the weeks gone by. A seemingly endless procession of commentators has appeared on television screens throughout the region, yet so far none of them have read the situation as a return to the age of the Middle East military coup.
Real change?
The end of an isolated, corrupt, authoritarian regime in a key country like Egypt is indeed a monumental change. But the legacy left by Mubarak and his two predecessors presents a formidable obstacle. It will certainly take a long time for the fruits of change to reach all Egyptians.
However, the immediate impact will become clear if the military government manages to arrange fair and free elections within a reasonable time frame, and shows a genuine respect for human rights. Another priority for the new rulers is to make a serious effort in the short term to curb the widespread corruption crippling Egypt’s economy. That alone would be no mean feat.
Egypt’s strategic role in the region is also an important factor. One way or another, the international community will influence the future of Egypt due to the country’s essential role in the Middle East peace process.
But on this historic evening, millions of people are flooding the streets of Cairo and all of Egypt’s cities to celebrate the departure of President Mubarak. If you were to tap any of them on the shoulder tonight and ask them to deliberate about whether this is a change for better or for worse, they’d probably only shrug and keep right on partying.
(rk/gsh)
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Nothing ventured, nothing gained. It is their country and it should be their decision - not ours, depending on which political group best accommodates our financial wishes. The West should mind it's own business.
Robert Fisk of 'The Independent' is apprehensive:
A clear divergence is emerging between the demands of the young men and women who brought down the Mubarak regime and the concessions – if that is what they are – that the army appears willing to grant them.
As for the freeing of political prisoners, the military has remained suspiciously silent. Is this because there are prisoners who know too much about the army's involvement in the previous regime? Or because escaped and newly liberated prisoners are returning to Cairo and Alexandria from desert camps with terrible stories of torture and executions by – so they say – military personnel.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-is-th...
All modern revolutions have ended in a reinforcement of the power of the state.
You can't step twice into the same river.
From: RAY McGOVERN
McGovern was a CIA analyst for 27 years, whose duties included preparing the President’s Daily Brief and chairing National Intelligence Estimates. He is on the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. He said today:
“Relatively little attention has been paid to the major factor in play with respect to the crisis in Egypt. That factor involves the stakes for Israel, which stands to lose what has become an ally in Egypt, and might have to revert to worrying about security in additional border areas and in Gaza, not to mention elsewhere in the Arab world.
“Egypt can be expected to do all it can to keep Suleiman or another official from the old regime in power. And, for that to happen, strong U.S. support will be indispensable. Israeli pressure on Washington probably accounts largely for the vagaries in Washington’s recent statements and positions. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak just met with Hillary Clinton and Robert Gates in Washington to coordinate the Israeli-U.S. response. If the Obama administration continues to keep itself joined at the hip with Israel, both countries stand eventually to lose out in Egypt and in other Arab countries — and lose big time.”
I am glad to know that I am not the only one who has fears regarding the Egypt revolution. My real fear is that one of those supressed violent fundamentalist groups will seize power in Egypt. Mubarak had kept them under control for a long while. They are almost sure to pop up and institute measures that will see to the quick end of Copts and perpetrate widespread abuses of rights.
Your fears aren't unfounded. We have seen revolutions go sour, and aspirations of people crushed by the new regimes, whether civilian or military, such is the human nature.But,sincerely hope that the Egyption uprising, the Egyptian victory, and transfer of power from military to democracy is as magical as this sweet victory. Let all the leaders of the world read the writing on the wall-People Power Powerful...
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