Now that the fall of Libya’s Gaddafi regime appears to be taking place, the world has its eyes on the next phase. Getting rid of a dictator is one thing, but experience has taught that building up a democracy is much more difficult. The Netherlands shouldn’t be too eager to get itself too involved in the ‘new’ Libya, say politicians and experts.

The situation in Libya is not the same as it is for example, in Egypt, where the Netherlands has over many years built up links with organisations and activists. “Libya will have to begin from scratch,” says Dutch conservative MEP Hans van Baalen. He was closely involved in the democratisation of Eastern Europe on behalf of the European Union, and has followed recent events in Egypt as they developed.

“In Egypt, you had parties with long histories. It’s different in Libya, and parties will have to be built up from scratch. That takes time. Without a doubt, there will be elections. Eventually, a constitution will have to be drawn up. They’ve already published a draft constitution. At first glance, that looks good, with a secular non-religious state.”

Arab Spring
Building up the moderate forces within society is the first thing the Netherlands could help with, thinks Marc Waanders, from the Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV), which in June handed a report to the government on the Netherlands and the Arab Spring. The process of democratisation takes years. “We talked about at least two years in the case of Egypt, it will be much longer for Libya.”

“You have to concentrate on investing in forces which in the longer term can ensure a bit of stability. That means, as well as helping the development of the institutional structures of the state, you’ve got to work on strengthening moderate forces in society. Eventually, they have to control the state which will develop in Libya over the coming years.”

Restraint
Mr Van Baalen thinks the West has to begin by adopting a restrained position: “It’s now up to the National Transitional Council (NTC), to the rebels who will soon form the government. They have to have legitimacy, also in the Arab World.” He says Libya’s most powerful neighbour, Egypt, could play a major role, for example, in training a police force. China and Russia should also in time be involved in Libya’s future.

Historian and journalist Gerbert van der Aa agrees that European intervention is a bad idea for the time being.

“There was an example of this going horribly wrong, during independence in 1951. The United Nations played a part in setting up the government of the newly independent Libya, which had been an Italian colony. King Idriss was chosen as head of state, but he only actually had supporters in the east of the country and he also turned out to be rather corrupt. That was why the country started to disintegrate. That’s my reason for saying it’s important now that the Libyans themselves try to sort this problem out for themselves.”

(with additional information from Johan van der Tol)

(mw/rk)