Having survived a motion of no-confidence over its handling of the Iraq invasion, the cabinet of Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende is facing a new and possibly fatal hurdle. Should the Dutch military mission in Afghanistan be extended after 2010?

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Wouter Bos has unequivocally stated that he and his Labour party will stand by their promise to the electorate that the last Dutch soldier will leave Afghanistan by 31 December 2010. This is Labour's response to a NATO request for Dutch troops to stay in Uruzgan or elsewhere in Afghanistan after 2010, possibly on a non-combative training mission. The request has been welcomed by the Christian Democrat and Christian Union ministers in the coalition cabinet. They favour a positive response.

No U-turn this time
Minister Bos, who has in the past been accused of changing his mind a bit too often, has made it very clear that he will stand firm. Demanding a decision on the matter by Friday, he has in effect put a bomb under the coalition cabinet. Observers in The Hague say that a cabinet crisis is likely. What form it will take is a matter of speculation: the Labour ministers could resign, leaving a caretaker cabinet of two Christian parties in power until the 2011 elections, or the entire cabinet could step down, leading to early elections in June.

Youth and Family Minister André Rouvoet, leader of the orthodox Christian Union, the junior partner in the coalition, told reporters that the government has a duty to preserve stability. Mr Rouvoet said he was surprised by Mr Bos' sudden determination, and hoped that a way out could be found.

Reputation at stake
The Christian Democrats' main worry is that rejecting the NATO request would damage the Netherlands' standing in the world, possibly even leading to its expulsion from G20 meetings where the Dutch have observer status.

All eyes are on Friday's weekly cabinet meeting, where Mr Bos' demand for a final decision will be on the agenda. It is not clear whether a decision will actually be taken at the meeting.

Parliament demands explanation
The Dutch Lower House has summoned Prime Minister Balkenende and Finance Minister Wouter Bos to come and explain the situation in a debate on Thursday afternoon. Speaking for the largest opposition party, Socialist Party leader Agnes Kant suggested she could put forward a motion asking the cabinet to take a final decision on Friday. That is exactly Mr Bos' demand, and Ms Kant therefore expects Mr Bos' governing Labour party to support her motion.