Nigeria's main rebel group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has declared a 60-day ceasefire. The move comes in response to the Nigerian government's decision to release MEND leader Henry Okah, as part of an amnesty agreement. But the question remains whether the ceasefire will lead to an end of the violence in the region?

MEND began launching terrorist attacks against Nigeria's oil sector in 2006.  The group claims they are fighting to secure a larger portion of oil revenue for local communities. Their attacks have typically been confined to the Niger Delta region, but on Monday, the group carried out an attack outside of the delta, in Nigeria's largest city Lagos. Five people were killed in the violence. MEND tactics have included kidnapping and murdering oil workers, along with destroying oil pipelines. As a result, oil production in Africa's largest oil-producing region is down thirty percent.

Time to talk
In a statement, released on Wednesday, MEND announced that it would observe a 60-day ceasefire that is intended to create an environment for dialogue with the Nigerian government. The group states they are open to "frank talks and deals" if the Nigerian government negotiates sincerely.  The ceasefire declaration follows the release of MEND leader Henry Okah.  Mr. Okah was arrested in Angola in 2007 and accused of arms trafficking. He was freed as part of an amnesty agreement offered by the Nigerian government. His release was one of MEND's pre-conditions for beginning negotiations.

MEND spokesperson speaks
Radio Netherlands spoke to a MEND spokesperson, a man who identifies himself as "Tom". He says that despite the ceasefire, the events in Lagos remain a clear warning to the Nigerian government:

"The attack in Lagos was symbolic; it was just to pass a message to the authorities that we could go out of the Niger Delta even though we've chosen not to up to this time."

MEND's attack in Lagos raises fears that unsuccessful negotiations could lead to the conflict spreading outside of the Niger Delta.  It also remains unclear whether the current ceasefire will hold.  A similar ceasefire in September 2008 was broken by the rebels, who claimed they were responding to government military aggression. MEND spokesperson "Tom" says the ceasefire is conditional:

"It's not supposed to be a kind of irrevocable statement. Anything can happen. We wish it will not happen... If the military decides to go on another punitive expedition... we are not going to fold our hands and watch those atrocities."   

The new ceasefire may provide a break in the violence, but it is still unclear whether the Nigerian government and MEND can reach agreement on a more permanent end to the oil-war in the Niger Delta. 

Listen to interview with MEND spokesperson "Tom"