Is Russia again planning to use Cuba as a military springboard or a refuelling station for military aircraft? Is Moscow threatening to cross a virtual "red line", as a US general recently put it? Speculation is rife and comparisons are even being made to 1962, when the Cuban Missile Crisis apparently brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.

It began last month, when a Russian military source suggested that Cuba could be used to refuel Russian long-distance nuclear bombers during patrols over the Pacific. US Air Force Commander General Norton Schwartz immediately sounded the alarm, saying the presence of Russian bombers in Cuba would cross a "red line" for the US.

Economic cooperation
A week later, Russian news agencies reported that during a weekly cabinet meeting Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had said that it would be good for Russia to strengthen its ties with Cuba and other countries. Economic ties, that is - innocent matters like mining, agriculture and the energy sector.

But almost immediately the story was seized upon by a retired Russian general, who stated that matters of security were indeed at stake and Cuba would make an ideal staging post for Russian naval ships and military aircraft. These comments went on to lead a life of their own, and as a result a new Cuban crisis seems to be looming.

Lourdes
Cuba itself has already made it fairly clear that there's no question of a renewed Russian military colonialism. The country is still sore at the fact that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought an end to the liberal flow of funds from Moscow. And the leadership in Havana hasn't forgotten that ten years later, without any consultation, Russia ended to its last military presence in Cuba: the vast intelligence base in Torrens, better known as "Lourdes", from which legend has it a pin could be heard falling anywhere in the southern United States, and all US communications could be tapped.

The present Cuban leader Raúl Castro would also seem to have little to gain from Russian sabre-rattling over Cuba, particularly as he now seems to be taking cautious steps towards improving relations with the United States.

New weapons
Quite apart from all the overblown talk surrounding Cuba, it's plain that the Russian army is using the extra billions in revenue from oil and gas sales to bring its military hardware up to scratch. New nuclear weapons and nuclear submarines have been developed, and an order has just been made for twelve new aircraft carriers (albeit of a modest size and without the usual nuclear propulsion), and there are feverish attempts to lift the armed forces out of the mess into which the once so mighty Red Army descended after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Priority: Asia
From the perspective of military strategy, there is no sign that Moscow has the least interest in Latin America, other than for occasional arms sales to countries like Venezuela. Russia's geopolitical priorities now lie in Asia, where it is seeking a strategic partnership with China and India, and was co-initiator of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a potential future counterpart to NATO. In contrast to the vague events now surrounding Cuba, in 2003 there was a military exercise to really set the alarm bells ringing. For the first time since 1991, Russian strategic bombers appeared above the Indian Ocean. The scenario of the exercise was plain enough: how to take out an entire US naval unit using nuclear cruise missiles. There's nothing vague about that.

The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis is generally seen as having been one of the most dangerous moments in the Cold War between the United States and the former Soviet Union. Moscow decided to station nuclear missiles and bombers in Cuba a year after the US had installed nuclear missiles near the Turkish city of Izmir. The then US president John F. Kennedy announced a sea blockade of Cuba after reconnaissance photos showed nuclear missiles were being transported to the island on cargo ships.  Other photos revealed that missile bases had already been built in Cuba. Mr Kennedy threatened a nuclear attack on the Soviet Union. At the last minute, a compromise was reached: Russia agreed not to install nuclear weapons in Cuba, and the US withdrew its nuclear missiles from Izmir.

* RNW translation (mb)