The last international climate change conference in Bali saw the UN's climate chief, Yvo de Boer, reduced to tears as things were going drastically wrong. But Mr de Boer could be left sobbing again as the UN seeks to find a deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is about to run out. Are the climate talks in Copenhagen doomed before they even start?

Two years ago, the Bali conference ended with a deal of sorts, although critics say it amounted to little. This time the stakes are even higher and the signs are not good.

RNW's climate change expert Marnie Chesterton is asked about Copenhagen's chances of success.

The Copenhagen conference kicks off at the beginning of December and already expectations are being lowered.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen said ahead of today’s EU summit, which is focussing on climate change as one its key issues, that he doesn't think a comprehensive deal on climate change will be struck in Copenhagen.

And European Union efforts to agree on a stance for the global climate talks have run into trouble because of a row between eastern and western member states over money.

Money
EU leaders hoped to agree at the two-day summit on a negotiating mandate for the talks in Copenhagen in December. The objective of the talks is to find a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. The protocol is the United Nations scheme for combating climate change.

Success in Copenhagen is likely to hinge on money.

Developing nations say they will not sign up to tackling climate change unless they get enough funding from rich nations which caused the problem in the first place. By fuelling their industries with oil, gas and coal, it is the rich countries that have polluted the atmosphere.

Europe's richer nations have accepted this, and EU leaders are preparing to endorse an estimate that developing nations will need about 100 billion euros a year by 2020 to confront climate problems.

Curb emissions
Developing countries could use the money to curb emissions from their dirtier industries, to develop drought-resistant crops or to find new sources of water as the old ones dry up.

But nine east European EU countries oppose paying so much. They say there is not much difference between the economic output of Romania, for example, and that of Beijing.

Britain, Germany and the Netherlands resent these countries getting special treatment.

 
EU leaders will seek to agree on how to protect the nine east European member states, whose economies have been hard hit by the economic crisis.

Burden sharing
In a compromise proposal, the EU’s  Swedish presidency said: "Contributions from the EU and member states ... should be based on a comprehensive global distribution key."

It added: "Should the application of such a key lead to a disproportionate burden on less prosperous member states, an adjustment should be made taking into account those member states' ability to pay."

But the nine are not reassured.

Hungarian Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai told a news conference: "The burden-sharing proposal is not acceptable in its current form."

A further source of discord between east and west also emerged over how to treat carbon emissions permits issued under the Kyoto Protocol once it expires in 2012.

Spare permits
The eastern European states, Russia and Ukraine hold spare permits for about 9 billion tonnes of carbon emissions, which were left over after their economies collapsed following the end of communist rule.

The spare permits, known as AAUs, can be sold to big polluters such as Japan for about 10 euros each, generating hundreds of millions of euros. So far Ukraine and the Czech Republic are the biggest sellers.

The eastern European countries want to keep on selling AAUs under the new deal that replaces Kyoto, but critics say deals like this will render the agreement ineffective. They have dubbed them "hot air".

An analysis by Point Carbon consultancy earlier this week stated: "Carrying over emissions rights through 2020 would result in an emissions decrease of only six percent, in sharp contrast with the 25-40 percent reductions scientists say are required ... to avoid dangerous climate change."

RNW and Reuters