Last week's climate summit in Cancún has yielded excellent results: for developing countries, that is. A new climate fund will be set up and new organisations will create programmes to transfer technology, help people adjust to climate change and stimulate capacity building.
A column by Yvo de Boer, former head of UN climate change.
About Yvo de Boer
United States
But rich countries, too, left Cancún with several wishes met. Among other things, a log will record all steps taken by developing countries; reporting obligations will be stepped up and mechanisms will be set up to evaluate countries’ policies. These steps will reduce the gap in the transparency demands imposed on rich and poor countries. This is particularly important for the United States. At times, it seemed the US only wanted to impose obligations on China that are as similar as possible to those imposed on Washington. The main goal, it seemed, was to give the American voter the feeling that China was making more or less the same effort as the US.
Rough deal
It is impossible to analyse the whole agreement here. But I can say there is something in it for everyone. In that sense, it is a satisfying outcome. For the planet, however, it is a rough deal. The targets currently agreed are insufficient to prevent major climate change. There was no room, in this round, to set stricter targets. In the US, legislation was blocked by the Senate. And if the US does not move, neither will the rest of the world. Fortunately, the Cancún agreement does mention setting stricter targets in a next round. That round is to start in 2013 and lead to results in 2015.
Now we must prepare for the next round, to be held in a year’s time in Durban, South Africa. That, too, will be an important round. Cancún contains many general agreements, which need to be worked out. These include politically controversial issues, such as deciding how to manage the new fund. Nor is it clear what is to become of the Kyoto Protocol. Japan, Russia and Canada, in particular, are determined to end greenhouse gas reduction targets as set by Kyoto. Developing countries, however, strongly oppose such a move. Postponing a decision on such a controversial issue saved the Cancún meeting. But the problem still needs to be solved.
Better results
It is understandable that countries do not want to throw out Kyoto before having in place a better agreement. In that sense, the solution seems to lie in carefully developing the agreements reached in Cancún. The point, in short, is to come up with a good alternative. Two separate agreements—one for the US and another for the rest—doesn't make sense either. So the only way forward is to achieve better results!


























The most intractable root cause is Too Many People -- not just of climate change, but other misery-causing effects, too, like pollution and shortages, and the strife that results. Productivity gains have created an enormous labor surplus that can't be employed without unsustainable rates of consumption. Ironically, some of the densest populations will suffer the most from rising oceans.
A system is possible that would provide for everyone's basic needs without extracting unneeded labor, but to be sustainable, it would be necessary to counter the natural tendency toward population growth that abundance tends to bring, and preferable to gradually reduce popultion to to reverse excesses to date and restore an sustainable balance.
In a steady state, there would be sufficient labor to apply to ever cleaner and less wasteful technology.
The most intratable problem is a greedy overclass that prefers the natural tendency toward ever-increasing wealth disparity and will resist any mechanism to counter that.
Obviously, there are no technical barriers to this, only political ones.
Too bad for all of us who live on this planet, that the greedy businesses can't see what is coming their way too: extinction! Wonder where they are going to spend all the money made? Heaven or Hell?
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