Former US president Bill Clinton stepped back into the diplomatic limelight with a trip to North Korea today (Tuesday). His main goal is to secure the release of two American journalists, but analysts say Mr Clinton’s visit may also have a long term positive effect on US/North Korea relations.

The two journalists, who were working for a Los Angeles-based news website owned by Al Gore, were sentenced to twelve years hard labour in May after allegedly crossing the Chinese/North Korean border.
 

Succesful
Being a former president gives Mr Clinton a distinct advantage. In fact, analysts believe the fact that he was allowed into the country means a deal has already been struck.

“He’ll be successful”, says Mike Breen, a journalist who has written extensively on North and South Korea. “The North Koreans wouldn’t make him lose face if he went back empty handed. You know, Bill Clinton is not just any celebrity, he’s an American statesman. To people in East Asia, this means he’s got almost as much seniority as any current head of state has. Having someone like Bill Clinton in their country gives the North Koreans some status”.

This could mean sending Mr Clinton to North Korea has been a diplomatic master stroke by the White House, although a spokesman denied the American administration was involved in this mission.

Further benefits
Mr Breen believes the visit will have further benefits than just the release of the two journalists:

“The North Koreans have repeatedly  expressed their desire to talk to the Americans directly on various issues”

“But the Americans have never been too keen on that. However, there are signs now that the Americans might be willing to, for instance in the wings of the six party talks that have been going on for a while, which also include the Chinese and the South Koreans. This visit might finally kick start direct talks between the two countries”.

Not that everything will suddenly change. “This is North Korea, after all”, Mr Breen warns. “It always blows hot and cold. We’ve been at this place a few times in the last 20 years. What they want is clear but it’s not palatable to the US or the South Koreans. I don’t think peace is now suddenly breaking out. The only thing they want is a new form of negotiation”.
 

Gains
Nevertheless, there is something to be gained from Mr Clinton’s visit by both sides. First, there is of course America’s victory of finally securing the release of two US citizens. The North Koreans gain by being able to show the people the Americans are willing to say 'We’re very sorry'.

“And the Americans will probably give them something in exchange”, Mr Breen adds.

“Expect a lot of punditry, talking about peace and change, but it’s up to both sides to make sure that everything won’t be back to tension six months from now”.
 

Listen to a Newsline interview with Mr Breen:

Photo by Timothy K. Hamilton (at flickr.com)