The latest prognoses estimate that Africa’s billion or so inhabitants will double to two billion by 2050. How disturbing would such a significant increase in population turn out to be? Koert Lindijer, a correspondent in Africa for over 25 years, says a doubling of the continent’s population would be catastrophic.

One clearly feels that the bubble is about to burst. Groups of youths from the countryside hang sit idly under the trees or on the verandas. The small plots of land owned by their parents must be split up and divided among the numerous children. “Do you have a job for me. Can I come with you to town?”, asks a 21-year-old boy. “I’m willing to clean your toilet, as long as I can save enough to send to my poor parents.”

Kenya is suffering from overpopulation. There is not enough farmland available to feed the growing number of people. The population has risen from five million residents in 1948 to an estimated 38 million today, one of the highest rates of population growth in the world. According to the latest census, 44 percent of the population is under  the age of 15. Only four percent are over the age of 65. The number of unemployed youths could rise to 14 million in the next two years.

Grim
Daily life is difficult and grim. “We cannot live here any more,” says a Samburu shepherd as he points to pastures in northern Kenya in which every blade of green has been eaten bare. “There are too many animals and too many people. We do not have enough room.”  The large number of goats kept by the shepherds has had a particularly destructive effect on the environment. Famines are becoming more common. Young people can no longer earn a living as shepherds and search for vain for work.

African cities have become nightmares. Lagos, long known for its state of anarchy and rudeness, is no longer considered an exception. Africans are moving en masse to Lagos and other large cities. The continent’s urban population is expected to more than double between 2000 and 2030, from 294 million to 742 million. Two years ago the United Nations Population Fund wrote an alarming report about urbanisation in Africa which stated that: “For every 250 households there are, on average, three toilets and one shower.”

The report calculates that 72 percent of Africa’s urban population live in shacks. The cities’ infrastructures, which are already in a deplorable state, will only deteriorate. Shanty town residents will have little chance to improve their lives, while shortages of water and electricity will become more frequent.

Amazing
One of the cities which has changed the most dramatically is the Ethiopian capital Addis Abeba. Although it has enjoyed spectacular economic growth, the city is also burdened with wretched poverty. The Bole road to the airport displays scenes of poverty and wealth. Mutilated beggars and mud are found in the midst of modern buildings and restaurants with names such as New York, Amsterdam, Boston and Paris Café.

Children and the elderly elbow each other at the traffic lights to be first in line for alms. You can only keep them at a distance by promising that God will take care of them. The clergy of the Coptic church, the main religion in Ethiopia, tells the poor that they must accept their fate.

Corrugated iron
Addis Ababa is similar to most African cities in that most of the houses are single storey. Seventy percent of the houses are made out of clay and wood, corrugated iron or plastic. Many of these shacks have been built illegally. The city, which has 3.5 million residents, grows at a rate of seven percent a year and the expanding capital has an urgent need for more houses.

The Kenyan capital Nairobi has grown rapidly from two million, fifteen years ago, to six million today. People arrive and animals leave. I live a stone’s throw from a wildlife reservation and the remaining groups of trees which used to be the entrance to what looked like endless savannas. Eighty years ago it would take half a day to ride along the muddy paths to the centre. Now the city bus takes half an hour to traverse the jammed roads.

Exhaust fumes
Villas, shacks, supermarkets and kiosks selling food are being built all over the place. The price of land has tripled. Everyone is stuck in a traffic jam in the early morning hours. Bicycles and scooter taxis break the silence. Soon we will not be able to enter the city without face masks because of the exhaust fumes, which is now the case in the Malian city of Bamako.

Africans love children, which they consider as an insurance for their old age. But there seems to be little hope for a future in which the increase in population is greater than the economic growth. The poor are the largest growing group in Africa. Maora, a resident of Nairobi, snarls: “There are only two tribes in Africa – the rich and the poor."

Photo: geoftheref at Flickr