There has been a remarkable drop in Afghanistan’s opium crop, according to a United Nations report. Last year, the opium and poppy harvests were more than twenty percent down compared to previous years. Twenty of the country’s provinces are now free of poppy fields. However, Afghanistan remains the world’s biggest producer of opiates.

The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in Vienna, Austria, attributes the decrease to market forces. “Opium is becoming less attractive for farmers”, UNODC-spokesman Walter Kemp told Radio Netherlands Worldwide. “A few years ago farmers could earn up to 27 times more from the growing of opium than from general crops. Now that number has dropped to only three times more. It’s simply less profitable than it used to be”.

Overproduction
The question is what exactly has driven the prices down. According to the UNODC, it’s been overproduction – the market has simply been flooded with opium, it says. “The current supply is enough to satisfy the world’s heroin addicts for two years. This could be just a market correction”, Mr Kemp says. “Or this could be the beginning of a downward trend. Time will tell”.

Sceptics
Sceptics say that the current decrease was caused by the opium farmers themselves – they stopped growing opium simply to clear stocks. Once the market has stabilised, normal production volumes resume. The UNODC says this is “one of a few scenarios”, but maintains that the overall trend remains a downward one.

There are also other factors, Mr Kemp notes: “There’s a more aggressive policy of counter-narcotics from the Afghan and NATO forces, and perhaps there’s also better governance in regions where the opium market used to be very strong in the past”. British and Dutch NATO forces are actively trying to persuade poppy farmers to switch to other crops. The UNODC says NATO’s actions are part of the overall solution.

‘Silver bullet’
“In Helmand, for instance, where British troops are stationed, opium cultivation is down by a third this year. That’s partly due to the British counter-insurgency”, Mr Kemp says. “But it’s not a silver bullet. It is part of a comprehensive, overall strategy which includes development, improving governance, cracking down on corruption and improving the justice system”.

The biggest problem remains the world’s huge demand for opiates and heroin. Despite the current downward trend, Afghanistan still produces 90% of the world market.  “What we need to do is reduce demand for heroin”, Mr Kemp says. “That would improve the health in societies where heroin is consumed and societies like Afghanistan would be better off, too”.
 

Listen to a Newsline interview with Mr Kemp:

Photo by ANP