"There is a plane passing overhead now…. And I say it’s been enough, we are going back." That’s Radio Netherlands Worldwide correspondent Hans Jaap Melissen’s describing the unequal fight between Gaddafi’s forces and the revolutionaries near the Libyan town of Ras Lanuf. A no-fly zone would go a long way toward correcting the imbalance, but the question is whether one will be imposed any time soon.

Former NATO secretary general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer is not optimistic. NATO does not want to take action until after the UN Security Council has adopted a resolution authorizing violence. And permanent Council member Russia is opposed to any kind of intervention. Today, the NATO member states meet to discuss a no-fly zone over Libya.

Divided we fall…
NATO is just as divided on the issue as the Security Council; and, according to the former secretary general, there’s more:

“Worse still, I believe that the US government is divided on the issue as well. I have heard Secretary of State Hillary Clinton make much more positive statements than Defence Secretary Robert Gates. He said recently: You need to understand what you’re getting yourself into; a no-fly zone is also a military intervention. And he is clearly not in favour of it. It will take some doing to reach consensus today, and NATO only takes action on the basis of unanimity."

Even so, it is not impossible for NATO to impose a no-fly zone on Libya without a mandate from the UN Security Council. It did so in Kosovo in 1999. “I could imagine something like that happening if we were to see a huge increase of air strikes on city centres and the killing of huge numbers of innocent Libyan civilians.”

Washington
However, Mr De Hoop Scheffer argues that under no circumstance could a no-fly zone be imposed without massive US support. “It would be impossible without the US’ inventory of ships, aircraft carriers and tankers for in-flight refuelling. So it is really important what Washington eventually decides to do.” And that is still up in the air.

Mr De Hoop Scheffer says NATO will today decide to proceed with its advanced planning procedures. "It’s what NATO calls prudent planning, allowing it to quickly take action once a decision has been implement the decision once it’s been made."

No ground forces
It’s all taking way too long in the eyes of the revolutionaries at Ras Lanuf. They told RNW correspondent Hans Jaap Melissen:

"The international community keeps talking and talking, but they do absolutely nothing for us. We only want a no-fly zone, no troops on the ground."

Meanwhile, Gaddafi’s forces keep advancing on Ras Lanuf, where a number of oil terminals are already on fire.

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