Working as a resource economist in Southern Africa I researched livelihood impacts of droughts. I saw people losing their crops and cattle, and having no alternative means of existence – not very pretty pictures. Droughts hit the dry parts of the continent  (about two thirds of it) with some regularity. In fact, there is one going on in Kenya right now.

 By Hans Opschoor

Droughts are bound to happen more frequently and to become more severe as a consequence of climate change. More Africans will be exposed to them, with more and possibly deeper misery as results. Droughts are but one example of the effects of a rising frequency of so-called ‘extreme weather events; others are: floods, storms and what have you.
 

Economic Impacts of Climate Change
The World Bank estimates that climate change may depress agricultural yields severely (with drops of 30% or more). Even with warming stopped at 20 (as many hope will be agreed globally) African per capita incomes may drop by 4-5% and surely losses will be more severe in the below-average parts of the income distribution.  There will be more severe water supply problems. Malaria will spread to parts of the continent that used to be safe, protected as they were by their altitude.  Nineteen cities with a population over 1 million are at risk due to sea level rise – even with the moderate predictions of the last (and by now outdated) reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Through its impacts climate change will eat up the results of earlier development and gnaw at the achievement of the development goals (millennium or otherwise) and livelihoods in the decades to come – especially in Africa.

The Adaptation Challenge
Most of these effects are unavoidable already: much of the temperature rise to be expected up till 2040 has to do with concentrations of greenhouse gases already built up.  What Africans and countries in Africa must prepare for, is to adapt to these changes in their environments as best they can: further develop adaptive capacities to deal with these impacts of climate change that will inevitably drop out of the blue sky in the years to come. Fortunately, Africans are acquainted with many of these effects: climate change appears to mainly intensify and spread more widely events that have characterised the continent for a very long period of time. South Africa aside there isn’t much pressure of Africa to deeply go for reducing emissions – not beyond what would be appropriate already, in a developmental perspective. For Africa it is adaptation that is the main concern.

Development versus Vulnerability
Much of what is considered ‘development’ by itself contributes to building up the resilience of people, communities and countries to the types of risks talked about here. Climate change will require more development-oriented effort, to compensate for the setbacks it will give rise to. More as well as new approaches are needed in areas like the development of new crops, farming systems, flood control and water resource management, livelihood-diversification and so on (and on, and on).

Going into some form of denial as, in his earlier column, Bram Posthumus seems to not only do but even appears to advocate, isn’t very wise. His main argument seems to be that thinking about climate change draws attention away from concerns over health, food, electricity and other desirable things. That picture is rather distorted, or ill-informed.

African countries have drawn up action plans for adaptation to shirt term adaptive requirements. A longer-term perspective is necessary and in Copenhagen means are sought (and even beginning to be found) to take that up. Key issue beyond making plans are: how will all this accelerated adaptive development get going on the ground, and where will the resources needed come from. These can be addressed by calling on the potentials already existing in Africa in terms of human experience, knowledge and know-how, and on international support to help these potentials to grow and become more effective. That may require financial support, technology cooperation and capacity development also from high-income countries.

Obviously, all of this must not go at the expense of development efforts already under way (or promised but not yet delivered) but must come on top.  While other countries and continents should worry about how to tackle emissions reduction, the adaptation part of the overall Copenhagen agenda is immensely relevant to Africa and in the interest of its people – especially the poorer ones living in exposed parts of the continent.

Photos: Oxfam International (Flickr CC) and Hans Opschoor