President Robert Mugabe (87) says Zimbabwe will hold fresh elections this year. But to many of his people, another election with him as candidate, is sure to see the resurgence of political violence from his followers. Homes will be burnt, there will be forced disappearances, arbitrary arrests of political opponents and villagers will be tortured.

By Nkosana Dlamini, Harare

Maidei Madombwe, a 48-year-old widow from Zimbabwe’s politically restive Mashonaland Central province, is among millions of election weary citizens with fresh memories of the country’s previous violent polls.

"I was beaten up, my homestead was torched and my two daughters were raped by Mugabe’s supporters in the last election and nothing was done to them. Not elections again!" says Madombwe.

Time for a break
Since 2000, Zimbabwe has had four national elections with only two to three years separating them and all of them have been violent. Zimbabweans feel they need a break from this.

But Mugabe’s party, Zanu-PF, says that its widening differences with its coalition partners cannot continue and vows to go to the polls this year with or without the two MDC factions in government.

“Elections are on this year and reforms are not fundamental,” party spokesperson Rugare Gumbo said.

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), an equal partner in the country’s coalition government, says Mugabe has no power anymore to declare elections alone.

“No single political party has the authority to unilaterally declare election dates outside national and SADC consensus,” said party spokesperson Douglas Mwonzora.

Key determinant
Zimbabwe’s unity deal does not say when elections must be held but places the rewriting of a new constitution as a key determinant.

The MDC wants polls only after crucial democratic reforms as spelt out in the country's unity deal becomes a reality.

Chief among these are reforms around the country’s security sector, electoral regime, the licensing of private broadcasters and an end to political intimidation.

Civic groups have intensified calls for Mugabe to abandon early polls insisting the country’s political environment was not yet ripe to deliver a credible outcome.

“Zimbabwe is a fragile State; serious consideration must be given to the timing of the next elections,” reads their position paper distributed at last week’s recent regional summit in Windhoek. Zimbabwe's political unrest was discussed at the summit.

Mugabe concerned
The MDC claims more than 200 party supporters were killed in the 2008 presidential poll violence while over 3000 were internally displaced.

Political analysts believe that by insisting on an election, Mugabe hopes to snap a quick victory and pass the baton to a younger successor who would not antagonise him and his young family for his past crimes.

University of Zimbabwe political science Professor John Makumbe says Mugabe’s adamant stance is driven by worries.

“They (Mugabe’s party) are doubtful whether he will be able to campaign because of his age and failing health, so they would want to speed up elections before he knocks down,” he says.

Mugabe, who once labelled fellow African leaders as worse dictators, now appears cornered.

His younger regional peers, long criticised for their softly approach on him, have rebuked his attempts to force an early poll insisting on a clear roadmap.