Yemen looks set to become the new focus of the West’s war against terror. Several countries have closed their embassies in the capital Sanaa after threats they could be targeted by a local group affiliated with al-Qaeda.

All eyes have been on Yemen since it emerged last week that a 23-year-old Nigerian man who tried to blow up a US-bound plane on Christmas day had trained there. The American and British embassies have been shut for two days and today Spain and France followed suit. Security has now been stepped up at several other missions and the airport in Sanaa but there is no indication the Netherlands plans to close its embassy.

Middle East expert Bertus Hendriks, from the Clingendael Institute in the Hague, says Yemen deserves the attention it’s being given:

“Al-Qaeda has been able to re-establish itself fairly well recently after being fought fiercely in the years immediately after September 11….  I have no doubt there have been serious indications al-Qaeda is planning another attack.”

Internal conflicts
The US announced at the weekend it would more than double its $67 million counter-terrorism aid package to Yemen, but there are concerns the money may not be spent wisely. The Yemeni government is already struggling to stamp out two internal conflicts: with Shi’ite rebels in the north and a separatist group in the south. These issues have tended to take top government priority.

 Listen to an interview with Middle East expert Bertus Hendriks

Yemen doesn’t have a good track record of transparency, and Bertus Hendriks the latest US aid will come with strict conditions attached. A possibly significant development in this regard was the move by President Ali Abdallah Salih on New Year's Day to invite the Houthi rebels in the north to lay down their arms – a proposal the group appeared prepared to accept:

“This may be an indication President Salih is reordering his priorities and if he wasn’t thinking about it himself, I think the Americans will be very heavily pressing him to do so.”

Diplomatic efforts
As well as pumping money into counter-terrorism, the West is also looking for more diplomatic solutions to the situation in Yemen. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has called for a summit in London at the end of the month to look at ways in which the international community can work together, saying the battle against the “murderous ideology” of Muslim extremists would become a striking feature of the next decade. Mr Brown warned:

“We’ve got to be vigilant in every part of the world where there’s a failed state or failing state which creates space for a terrorist group to operate.”

Long-term effort needed
Bertus Hendricks believes Gordon Brown’s proposal is an acknowledgement that solving the al-Qaeda problem in Yemen also requires focus on socio-political issues.

“It needs a lot of investment, but obviously like in Pakistan and Afghanistan, that’s a long-term effort and won’t yield immediate results. It doesn’t mean it’s not necessary – it is absolutely necessary – but for the moment I think the priority will be on the immediate threat, which is more of a military/terrorist nature.”