On Thursday, we reported on a mysterious arms shipment from Iran to the Gambia that was intercepted in Lagos, Nigeria. In this, the second and final part, we look for answers to the question: who were these arms for?

Part two, by Bram Posthumus and Sheriff Bojang

"We have looked at several possibilities," says Mark Schroeder, the Africa analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence company. "Individual countries such as the Gambia don’t need so many arms. Another one, like Ivory Coast runs its own ports and can source weapons independently. So then we thought about various insurgent groups in the region, like MEND in Nigeria and the Casamance rebels. And we have certainly been thinking about AQMI (al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, a loosely organised series of groups that has been involved in kidnapping foreigners in among others Mauritania, Mali and Niger)."

Schroeder thinks that the weapons shipment could easily have had multiple destinations. "And I’m sure the US government would love to get proof if AQMI were to be one of the recipients of these arms. The US is concerned about AQMI and has worked with various countries in the region to keep it in check."

The Iran connection
The sender, Iran, does not have the habit of shipping arms directly to its clients, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. One Iranian deputy has declared that it’s all a set-up by Western intelligence, designed to cause embarrassment between Africa and Iran. Stratfor’s Mark Schroeder does not rule that out. "This is not a high cost activity for Western intelligence," he says, "and the US is always trying to put pressure on Iran’s behaviour. Every little bit helps."

If so, they have succeeded and Senegal is a case in point. Iran was a welcome guest at the summit of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference that was hosted by Dakar in 2007. Two years later, Iranian president Ahmadinejad paid a high-profile visit to the same city. Iran runs development projects in Senegal, Iranian Khodro taxis (assembled locally) ply the streets of Dakar – and crucially, Senegal supports Iran’s quest to go nuclear.

Tehran maintains that the intercepted arms were part of a private business transaction. But Nigerian newspapers report that the two Iranian businessmen involved, Azim Aghajani and Sayed Akbar Tahmaesebi, were operatives of the Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s chief military force.

Two losers
That would confirm Senegal’s view that you do not organise a private arms shipment of this magnitude without the Iranian state knowing about it. Dakar recalled its ambassador to Teheran on December 14th “for consultations”. A break-up seems imminent.

So far, the fallout appears to affect mostly Iran and the Gambia. Both have dreadful reputations internationally, in part thanks to their human rights record. In addition, there is controversy over Iran’s nuclear plans, while the Gambia is mostly known as a regional hub for money laundering, drugs trafficking and now weapons smuggling. But it is even worse for Iran.

According to Mark Schroeder, it has just lost a valuable pipeline. "This is an old supply chain that Iran has used for channelling political interest and also drugs, weapons and money. Now it’s blocked. Things may still go through Lagos but they will have to find new ways."

Part one of this story was published on Thursday 23 December