A new Dutch cabinet will be sworn in today. It is an historic cabinet in many respects – the first Liberal prime minister since early last century, the first minority government and first government supported by a right-wing, populist party.
 
It seems a precarious formula. A minority government (formed by the free-market Liberal VVD and – now much smaller – Christian Democrat CDA) with the support of a partner in parliament (the new, anti-Islam Freedom Party) giving it a mere one-seat majority in the lower house. And no majority at all in the - less relevant - upper house.
 
Will it last? Will this government serve out its four-year term, or will it fall very quickly?
 
Five reasons why this cabinet will be in power for years:

1. No one wants elections. If this government were to fall, new elections would be called. Geert Wilders wants his Freedom Party to gain more experience before he's ready to govern. Nearly every other party is scared of new elections.
2. Something for everyone. Since the cabinet itself does not enjoy a majority in parliament, it will have to search for votes for each legislation proposal. Parties are already lining up with pet projects they think could be implemented.
3. The Liberals (VVD) + Christan Democrats (CDA) do well together. The two parties that form this government like governing together. When they have been in coalitions, the cabinets have lasted.
4. Denmark. The current construction featuring a minority government supported by a populist, anti-immigrant party is based on the situation in Denmark. It has worked well there for ten years now.
5. Inherent stability. Pragmatists will win the day, the institutions of government will take over, and people will once again get bored by the lack of controversy in The Hague.

Five reasons why this cabinet will fall within a few months:

1. Mr Wilders wants new elections. Geert Wilders will get frustrated when this cabinet does not implement some of his Freedom Party’s policies as forcefully as he would like. He will pull the plug, counting on winning the next election outright.
2. It only takes one. With a majority of one seat in the lower house of parliament, it will not take much for a motion of no confidence to succeed. Just one MP could make it happen. At least two Christian Democrats are not very comfortable with this cabinet, and the Freedom Party has a proven rabble-rouser named Hero Brinkman.
3. Mr Wilders' unpredictability. Geert Wilders likes to be provocative. He has refrained from making extremely controversial comments in the last few months, since this coalition started to take shape. But that is not likely to last. He may provoke again, and one of the two coalition members may decide enough is enough.
4. Denmark. The two countries are not really that comparable after all. And now that the Danish government has to cut the budget, as the new Dutch cabinet is doing, support from the populist party in parliament is receding. The upcoming Danish elections will bring an end to the Danish model. The Dutch cabinet won't make it that far.
5. Inherent instability. The Netherlands has entered an era of instability. Voters don't know what they want and are constantly searching for a better option. With the current political system, this country has become the Italy of the north, changing governments as often as one changes one's shirt.