As tensions are mounting in Ivory Coast, neighbouring Liberia worries about the civil war crossing the border. Meanwhile, Liberian mercenaries are fighting for both parties in the conflict.

The Ivorian towns of Blolequin, Toulepléu and Doké all fell to the Forces Nouvelles, the de facto army of president-elect Alassane Outtara in the past few weeks. They are a stone’s throw from the Liberian border, reason for the 8,000 strong international peacekeeping operation in Liberia, UNMIL (United Nations Mission in Liberia) to step up its patrols.

“We have redoubled our efforts along the border,” says UNMIL spokesperson Yasmina Bouziane on the line from the Liberian capital Monrovia. ‘We’re doing foot and vehicle patrols, all this in close cooperation with the Liberian authorities. Everyone is extremely concerned about the situation.” But as far as she knows the worst-case scenario had not yet materialised. This would be, of course: incursions into Liberia, by Ivorian rebels.

Traumatised
Similarly, Fatoumata Lejeune-Kaba, spokesperson for the UN refugee agency UNHCR in Geneva, says that as far as she knows there have been no troop incursions from Ivory Coast into Liberia. “We have heard reports about ‘a few people’ crossing into Liberia and disappearing across the border again but that is all. I must add, though, that the Liberian government wants to do everything possible to prevent the war from spilling over.” She dismisses stories about a refugee camp in Liberia that was reportedly targeted by Ivorian rebels.

The fighting in Ivory Coast has sent close to 100,000 refugees into Liberia. Most of them are in Nimba County, the same area from where former president Charles Taylor (now on trial in The Netherlands for war crimes he allegedly committed in Sierra Leone) launched his violent bid for power, more than 21 years ago. “Liberians are still traumatised by this war,” says Lejeune-Kaba. “They have had eight years of uninterrupted peace – and they want to keep it that way.”

Ex-combatants
A few thousand former combatants would disagree. Ever since the civil war ended in Liberia in 2003, they have been looking for new opportunities. The UN estimates that there are up to 2,000 Liberian mercenaries fighting on both sides in the Ivorian conflict. Most are from the counties of Nimba and Grand Gedeh.

The terrain there is perfect for illegal border crossings: a huge area of dense, virtually impenetrable tropical rainforest with countless footpaths that no one can monitor. UNMIL is of course not prepared to say how it is patrolling this vast area, nor how many military are involved. “But it’s very difficult,” admits Bouziane. “You’re looking at 700 kilometres of porous border.”

Stuff and money
The Liberians fighting in Ivory Coast have two stakes in the conflict: stuff and money. A Liberian newspaper reported that Charles Taylor’s armed men now fight for the Forces Nouvelles, while Taylor’s former adversaries have apparently joined Laurent Gbagbo’s troops. But that could change overnight, as soon as one side runs out of money or there is nothing left to loot.

The Ivorian exodus and the movements of (ex-) combatants mean massive stress for the Liberian security services. Everyone coming into the country must be “thouroughly screened,” as the Executive Mansion (Liberia’s presidency) puts it.

This, to make sure no one “infiltrates the Liberian peace process.” Decoded this means: weed out the rebels, be they Ivorians on the prowl or Liberians returning with loot.

Cocoa
Meanwhile, even though they will not say this aloud, the Forces Nouvelles have found a target: the Ivorian cocoa port of San Pedro. The road to that port runs along the entire border. Peacekeepers, refugee agencies and the Liberian government can expect the headache to continue – and get worse.