With just days to go before South Sudan becomes an independent nation on 9 July, Sudan’s President Omar Hassan al-Bashir will have no less problems to deal with. Chief among them are rising inflation, popular protests and less oil.

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The challenges presented by the break-up of Africa's largest country mean President Omar Hassan al-Bashir will need to strike a delicate balance as he tries to hold together what is left of the nation he has ruled for more than two decades.

If he gets it wrong, he needs only look to his North African neighbours to see what could happen next. Popular protests have already pushed out long-ruling strongmen in Egypt and Tunisia and a civil war threatens another in Libya.

Southerners voted to split off from the north in a January plebiscite, the culmination of a 2005 peace deal that ended decades of civil war in which about two million people died. But Sudan's conflicts go beyond just north and south.

Less oil, more inflation
Analysts say the north's ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has typically dealt with insurgencies with a mix of heavy-handed security crackdowns and attempts to split the rebels by offering deals to some of their leaders. Those tactics may be harder to maintain as diminishing oil revenues drain the north's coffers.

"You can't just go on paying the salaries of the security and the army and forget about the public servants," said Fouad Hikmat of the International Crisis Group.

That could mean Bashir, a military officer who came to power in a bloodless 1989 coup, may have to seek political solutions more actively.

"In one year's time, if the NCP does not change, does not adapt a new approach that is more about inclusion than security control, then Sudan will be facing very serious problems," Hikmat added.

Islam’s influence
But opening up the political system could expose Bashir, wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity, to challenges from hardliners in his own party who oppose all concessions to Sudan's peripheral states -- seeing them as a catalyst for more secessionist demands.

Unencumbered by the south, where the population follows mostly Christian and traditional beliefs, some NCP members might renew their focus on the Islamist ideals that inspired them when they first came to power.

The south's ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) will continue to run an opposition party in the north, but its influence will be diminished.

Springtime in Khartoum?
Sudan has the same ingredients that ignited protests in other Arab countries -- particularly complaints of political repression and rising food prices, analysts say.

But it remains unclear whether Sudan, beleaguered by decades of war, will have the energy for an uprising, especially after the unrest took bloody turns in Libya, Yemen and Syria.

Popular protests helped oust two of Sudan's rulers after independence, and the memory of these movements is still alive. So far some small protests, many led by students, have broken out, but have been quickly dispersed by security forces with batons and tear gas.

Few friends
Much of what happens to the north may depend on what emerges in a final deal on sharing out oil revenues, which has yet to be decided with the south a week away from independence. Any settlement is likely to see the north get less than the 50 percent of revenues from southern oil it currently receives under the 2005 peace deal.

To make up for it, analysts say north Sudan could turn increasingly to gold mining, agriculture and other industries or open up to more foreign investment from willing countries.
Bashir's recent visits to Iran and China could be a prelude to this, as the leader seeks to woo foreign leaders who could help prop up a beleaguered economy.

Source: Reuters